大气与海洋物理
The predictability of the generative AI-based nowcasting model LDCast (trained on another region) is evaluated over Belgium, together with the pysteps implementation of the nowcasting algorithm STEPS. STEPS and LDCast are slightly…
After a very calm 24th solar activity cycle, the 25th cycle has already seen several interesting events. A Ground Level Enhancement GLE77 was observed on 11 November 2025 following an X5.1 class solar flare. A strong Forbush decrease…
Oceanographic instrumentation technology is currently under rapid transition towards increasingly open-source technology. Open-source buoys compete with commercial and closed-source buoys both in price, functionality and availability.…
Methane emissions by livestock have a negligible effect on Earth's temperature. For example, killing all of the approximately 1.6 billion cattle on Earth in the year 2025, when this paper was written, would only reduce atmospheric methane…
While geostrophy remains the simplest and most practical balance to extract velocity information from sea-surface height anomaly (SSHa), confusions remain within the oceanographic community to what extent this balance can be applied to…
This study introduces and validates a cloud condensation model on insoluble nuclei using a novel comparative analysis of simultaneous radiosonde and ceilometer data. A transformation of the radiosonde's temperature and relative humidity…
Accurate short-term prediction of clouds and precipitation is critical for severe weather warnings, aviation safety, and renewable energy operations. Forecasts at this timescale are provided by numerical weather models and extrapolation…
Extreme events pose significant risks and are challenging to predict. Assessing climate hazards requires placing quantitative constraints on geophysical fields under observable but fluctuating conditions. We propose a framework for…
Accurate and efficient climate simulations are crucial for understanding Earth's evolving climate. However, current general circulation models (GCMs) face challenges in capturing unresolved physical processes, such as cloud and convection.…
Black carbon (BC) contributes to Arctic warming by absorbing sunlight and darkening snow. Its atmospheric lifetime critically determines its concentration and climate impact, yet the processes controlling its removal remain poorly…
Machine learning (ML) has achieved remarkable success in climate and marine science. Given that greenhouse warming fundamentally reshapes ocean conditions such as stratification, circulation patterns and eddy activity, evaluating the…
Data driven weather models now approach traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) skill at short to medium lead times, but their dynamical consistency during autoregressive rollout remains uncertain.
I analyzed ice water content (IWC) data from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and sea surface temperature (SST) data from NOAA's Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) product from 2004 to 2024. Using these data, I derived monthly infrared…
Differential reflectivity columns (ZDRC) have been shown to provide information about a storm's updraft intensity and size. The updraft's characteristics, in turn, influence a severe storm's propensity to produce hail and the size of said…
Climate change will impact wind and therefore wind power generation with largely unknown effect and magnitude. Climate models can provide insights and should be used for long-term power planning. In this work we use Gaussian processes to…
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited…
Weather extremes pose major societal risks, especially in a changing climate, but due to their rarity, they are difficult to study using limited observations or complex climate models. We introduce AI+RES, a framework coupling fast AI…
The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…
The El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a dominant mode of interannual climate variability, yet the mechanisms limiting its long-lead predictability remain unclear. Here we develop a physics-guided Deep Echo State Network (DESN) that…
By combining AI and fluid physics, we discover a closed-form closure for 2D turbulence from small direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. Large-eddy simulation (LES) with this closure is accurate and stable, reproducing DNS statistics…