大气与海洋物理
The Pattern Effect describes the dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiation anomalies on changes in the pattern of sea surface temperatures. The emerging consensus in the field explains the impact of Pacific warm pool temperature on…
Hourly rainfall extremes cause some of the most destructive weather disasters, yet numerical weather prediction models still struggle to forecast them, and a physical basis for their predictability remains unclear. Here, we identify a…
Italy and the surrounding seas are recognised as one of the European hotspots for tornadoes and waterspouts. In recent years, the town of Rosignano Solvay (on the Northern Tyrrhenian coast) experienced repeated waterspouts affecting the…
Machine-learnt weather prediction (MLWP) models are now well established as being competitive with conventional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the medium range. However, there is still much uncertainty as to how this…
Gravity waves (GWs) are a fundamental driver of circulation, tracer transport, and mixing in the middle and upper atmosphere, but their treatment in global circulation models remains incomplete. In particular, standard parameterizations…
Expressions for local discrete variance decay (DVD) rates are directly derived from discrete tracer equations without any assumptions on discrete fluxes of the second moment. Spurious mixing (SM) associated with numerical implementations of…
While it is expected that the large-scale tropical circulation should undergo some changes in a warmer climate, it remains an open question whether its characteristic features, such as the Hadley cell, the intertropical convergence zone, or…
Satellite observations play a critical role in numerical weather prediction where they are assimilated through an observation operator that maps model states to radiances. In the traditional Ensemble Kalman Filter, these observations are…
Current operational air quality forecasts are computationally expensive, sensitive to errors in physics and emissions, and often neglect weather-related uncertainty. To address these limitations, we present AirFusion, a hybrid,…
In a changing climate, artificial intelligence (AI) weather models have the potential to provide cheaper, faster, and more accurate forecasts of high-impact weather events. To realize this potential and gauge trustworthiness, there is a…
This study evaluates the effectiveness of three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation coupled with a Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) framework for improving short-range precipitation forecasts over the Indonesian Maritime Continent…
Calculating transition probabilities between different states of multistable climate tipping systems is computationally challenging in high-dimensional models. Targeted algorithms, such as the Trajectory-Adaptive Multilevel Splitting (TAMS)…
While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to…
Accurate reconstruction of global Sea surface temperature (SST), which dominates the air-sea coupling and global climate variability, underpins climate monitoring and prediction. Existing SST reconstruction products primarily provide one…
Global warming is often framed in broad planetary numbers such as the 1.5C and 2C warming thresholds, creating the false impression that individual corporations efforts to reduce emissions are meaningless in the absence of collective…
Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…
Earth's energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is a key climate system metric, but its natural variability is poorly constrained by the short observational record and large uncertainty in coupled climate models. While existing ocean…
The potential intensity (PI) theory of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a reasonable estimate of the steady-state intensity in a quiescent environment. The theory relies on the symmetric neutrality (SN) assumption, where absolute angular…
Ensembles of regional-global climate model combinations show substantial spread in projected wind and solar resources. Using 31 RCM-GCM pairs, we quantify the sources of this spread with a spatially and seasonally resolved variance…
The SWUF-3D drone fleet is used in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) for in situ turbulence measurements of complex flows, such as in mountainous terrain or wind turbine wakes. Previous calibrations for measuring vertical wind speed $w$…