大气与海洋物理

Air pollutants have long been known to cause major health problems across humans and all living organisms. Apart from that, they also play a crucial role in temperature inversion situations in the atmospheric layers thereby seriously…

Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification is used to assess the ability of twenty-one Global Climate Models (GCMs) to…

Predictions of the wave-induced response of floating structures that are moored in a harbour or coastal waters require an accurate description of the (nonlinear) evolution of waves over variable bottom topography, the interactions of the…

This paper reveals a large and all-season ozone hole in the lower stratosphere over the tropics (30degN-30degS) since the 1980s, where an O3 hole is defined as an area of O3 loss larger than 25% compared with the undisturbed atmosphere. The…

Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…

For modeling extreme rainfall, the widely used Brown-Resnick max-stable model extends the concept of the variogram to suit bloc maxima, allowing the explicit modeling of the extremal dependence shown by the spatial data. This extremal…

Recently, the use of machine learning in meteorology has increased greatly. While many machine learning methods are not new, university classes on machine learning are largely unavailable to meteorology students and are not required to…

In this work we improve forecasting of Sea Surface Height (SSH) and current velocity (speed and direction) in oceanic scenarios. We do so by resorting to Random Forests so as to predict the error of a numerical forecasting system developed…

In order to study the relation between the components of atmospheric circulation and summer precipitation over the Iranian plateau, daily rainfall data of synoptic stations of Iran were obtained from IRIMO for the period 1970 to 2003.…

Extreme weather amplified by climate change is causing increasingly devastating impacts across the globe. The current use of physics-based numerical weather prediction (NWP) limits accuracy due to high computational cost and strict…

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines…

Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…

The offshore wind energy sector has rapidly expanded over the past two decades, providing a renewable energy solution for coastal nations. Sector development has been led in Europe, but is growing globally. Most developments to date have…

The marginal ice zone is the dynamic interface between the open ocean and consolidated inner pack ice. Surface gravity waves regulate marginal ice zone extent and properties, and, hence, fluxes between the atmosphere and ocean, and ice…

A novel, particle based, probabilistic approach for the simulation of cloud microphysics is proposed, which is named the Super-Droplet Method (SDM). This method enables accurate simulation of cloud microphysics with less demanding cost in…

Mangrove canopy height is a key metric to assess tidal forests' resilience in the face of climate change. In terrestrial forests, tree height is primarily determined by water availability, plant hydraulic design, and disturbance regime.…

Numerical and observational evidence indicates that, in regions where mixed-layer instability is active, the surface geostrophic velocity is largely induced by surface buoyancy anomalies. Yet, in these regions, the observed surface kinetic…

Rainy years and dry years in SE Australia are known to be correlated with sea surface temperatures in the specific areas of the Indian Ocean. While over the past 100 years the correlation had been both positive and negative, it…

We present a new approach to modeling the future development of extreme temperatures globally and on a long time-scale by using non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions in combination with logistic functions. This approach is…

Intuitively, one would expect a more skillful forecast if predicting weather averaged over one week instead of the weather averaged over one day, and similarly for different spatial averaging areas. However, there are few systematic studies…