统计理论

We study the problem of variance estimation in general graph-structured problems. First, we develop a linear time estimator for the homoscedastic case that can consistently estimate the variance in general graphs. We show that our estimator…

We study the task of efficiently sampling from a Gibbs distribution $d \pi^* = e^{-h} d {vol}_g$ over a Riemannian manifold $M$ via (geometric) Langevin MCMC; this algorithm involves computing exponential maps in random Gaussian directions…

In this work, we explore Partitioned Independent Component Analysis (PICA), an extension of the well-established Independent Component Analysis (ICA) framework. Traditionally, ICA focuses on extracting a vector of independent source signals…

This paper studies the problem of shuffled linear regression, where the correspondence between predictors and responses in a linear model is obfuscated by a latent permutation. Specifically, we consider the model $y = \Pi_* X \beta_* + w$,…

This article surveys the variety of ways in which a directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be used to represent a problem of probabilistic causality. For each of these we describe the relevant formal or informal semantics governing that…

We develop a statistical inference method for an optimal transport map between distributions on real numbers with uniform confidence bands. The concept of optimal transport (OT) is used to measure distances between distributions, and OT…

In this paper, we aim to perform sensitivity analysis of set-valued models and, in particular, to quantify the impact of uncertain inputs on feasible sets, which are key elements in solving a robust optimization problem under constraints.…

Rough volatility models have gained considerable interest in the quantitative finance community in recent years. In this paradigm, the volatility of the asset price is driven by a fractional Brownian motion with a small value for the Hurst…

A reasonable confidence interval should have a confidence coefficient no less than the given nominal level and a small expected length to reliably and accurately estimate the parameter of interest, and the bootstrap interval is considered…

The Varentropy is a measure of the variability of the information content of random vector and it is invariant under affine transformations. We introduce the statistical estimate of varentropy of random vector based on the nearest neighbor…

Composite quantile regression has been used to obtain robust estimators of regression coefficients in linear models with good statistical efficiency. By revealing an intrinsic link between the composite quantile regression loss function and…

We consider a model selection problem for structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables for diffusion processes based on high-frequency data. First, we propose the quasi-Akaike information criterion of the SEM and study the…

Despite a large and significant body of recent work focused on estimating the out-of-sample risk of regularized models in the high dimensional regime, a theoretical understanding of this problem for non-differentiable penalties such as…

We conduct a review of the fiducial approach to statistical inference, following its journey from its initiation by R. A. Fisher, through various problems and criticisms, on to its general neglect, and then to its more recent resurgence.…

Motivated by modern applications such as computerized adaptive testing, sequential rank aggregation, and heterogeneous data source selection, we study the problem of active sequential estimation, which involves adaptively selecting…

This paper considers the problem of manifold functional multiple regression with functional response, time--varying scalar regressors, and functional error term displaying Long Range Dependence (LRD) in time. Specifically, the error term is…

We present novel bounds for estimating discrete probability distributions under the $\ell_\infty$ norm. These are nearly optimal in various precise senses, including a kind of instance-optimality. Our data-dependent convergence guarantees…

We derive entropy bounds for the absolute convex hull of vectors $X= (x_1 , \ldots , x_p)\in \mathbb{R}^{n \times p} $ in $\mathbb{R}^n$ and apply this to the case where $X$ is the $d$-fold tensor matrix $$X = \underbrace{\Psi \otimes…

We investigate pointwise estimation of the function-valued velocity field of a second-order linear SPDE. Based on multiple spatially localised measurements, we construct a weighted augmented MLE and study its convergence properties as the…

We construct an estimator $\widehat{\Sigma}$ for covariance matrices of unknown, centred random vectors X, with the given data consisting of N independent measurements $X_1,...,X_N$ of X and the wanted confidence level. We show under…