综合经济学

We compiled the first high-frequency rice price panel for Taiwan from August 1945 to March 1947, during the transition from Japanese rule to China rule. Using regression models, we found that the pattern of rice price changes could be…

The evolution of global income distribution from 1988 to 2018 is analyzed using purchasing power parity exchange rates and well-established statistical distributions. This research proposes the use of two separate distributions to more…

Adverse economic shocks are known to reshape voter behavior -- the demand side of politics. Much less is known about their consequences for the supply side: how such shocks affect who becomes a politician. This paper examines how job losses…

This paper assesses the global employment and trade effects of renewed tariff escalation following the reintroduction of the United States' America First strategy in 2025. Using a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework integrated with…

Using newly-assembled data from 1980 through 2024, we show that 25% of scientifically-active, US-trained STEM PhD graduates leave the US within 15 years of graduating. Leave rates are lower in the life sciences and higher in AI and quantum…

Germany is tasked with ensuring the safe and final storage of high-level radioactive waste in a deep geological repository. Since 2022, the ambitious target year of 2031 to identify a suitable location for such a site has been deferred by…

Can religions shape ecosystems? We explore the role religious beliefs play in human-environment interactions by studying African Traditional Religions (ATR), which place forests within a sacred sphere. We focus on the unique case of Benin,…

In sorting literature, comparative statics for multidimensional assignment models with general output functions and input distributions is an important open question. We provide a complete theory of comparative statics for technological…

We develop a dynamic model of economic complexity that endogenously generates a transition between unconditional and conditional convergence. In this model, convergence turns conditional as the capability intensity of activities rises. We…

This note examines the distributional implications of introducing a fast-track queue for accessing a service when agents are heterogeneous in both income and service valuation. Relative to a single free queue, I show that willingness to…

Leveraging Tennessee's 2005 Medicaid contraction, I study the impact of losing public health insurance on body weight and relevant health behaviors. Using Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data from 1997 to 2010, I estimate…

This paper develops an algorithm for detecting US recessions in real time. The algorithm constructs hundreds of millions of recession classifiers by combining unemployment and vacancy data. Classifiers are then selected to avoid both false…

Using Brazilian municipal audit reports, I construct an automated corruption index that combines a dictionary of audit irregularities with principal component analysis. The index validates strongly against independent human coders,…

Case management by judges is increasingly determining the outcome of litigation, particularly in the multidistrict litigation (MDL) process. One concern is that the MDL process pressures defendants to settle, regardless of the merits, and…

Multilateral index numbers are often used to make claims about welfare, such as treating PPPs as cross-country costs of living or real incomes as indicators of living standards. However, such interpretations may not be consistent with the…

This study quantifies how contract duration influences buyers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) when they hold real options that allow them to flexibly time consumption in response to changing market conditions. Using contract data from the US…

We document a fundamental paradox in AI transparency: explanations improve decisions when algorithms are correct but systematically worsen them when algorithms err. In an experiment with 257 medical students making 3,855 diagnostic…

Since its inception, Bitcoin has been positioned as a revolutionary alternative to national currencies, attracting immense public and academic interest. This paper presents a critical evaluation of this claim, suggesting that Bitcoin faces…

While many national and international climate policies clearly outline decarbonization targets and the timelines for achieving them, there is a notable lack of effort to objectively monitor progress. A significant share of the transition…

This study uses the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) framework and expands it by including Optimism, Innovativeness and Range Anxiety constructs. In this study, conducted in Lucknow, the capital of India's most populous province (Uttar…