综合经济学

This paper reexamines the effects of the Latin Monetary Union (LMU) - a 19th century agreement among several European countries to standardize their currencies through a bimetallic system based on fixed gold and silver content - on trade.…

This paper introduces a contest-theoretic simplified model of triathlon as a sequential two-stage game. In Stage 1 (post-swim), participants decide whether to continue or withdraw from the contest, thereby generating an endogenous…

This paper studies how the timing of NGO activism shapes its effectiveness in influencing corporate behavior. Using data on 2,500 campaigns targeting U.S. firms, we show that campaigns timed at annual general meetings (AGMs) generate large…

This paper suggests methods for estimation of the $\tau$-quantile, $\tau\in(0,1)$, as a parameter along with the other finite-dimensional parameters identified by general conditional quantile restrictions. We employ a generalized method of…

Extreme political shocks may reshape economies not only through contemporaneous disruption but by altering beliefs about the distribution of future states. We study how such belief ruptures affect the cost of capital, expectations, and…

Prediction markets mobilize financial incentives to forecast binary event outcomes through the aggregation of dispersed beliefs and heterogeneous information. Their growing popularity and demonstrated predictive accuracy in political…

The emergence of large language models (LLMs) is reshaping how people engage in political discourse online. We examine how the release of ChatGPT altered ideological and emotional patterns in the largest political forum on Reddit. Analysis…

China's marriage registrations have declined substantially, dropping from 13.47 million couples in 2013 to 6.1 million in 2024. This study examined sentiment and moral elements underlying 219,358 marriage-related posts from Weibo and…

GenAI solutions like GitHub Copilot have been shown to increase the productivity of software developers. Yet prior work remains unclear on the quality of code produced and the challenges of maintaining it in software projects. If quality…

This article examines the political consequences of terrorism in Burkina Faso. Using a dataset combining geolocated terrorist events from ACLED (from 2015 to 2024) with public opinion data from Afrobarometer, I compare the effect of…

Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1863 through 2024 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an…

We study how product specialization choices affect supply chain resilience. We propose a theory of supply chain formation in which only compatible inputs can be used in final production. Intermediate producers choose how much to specialize…

While lobbying has been demonstrated to have an important effect on public opinion and policy making, existing models of opinion formation do not specifically include its effect. In this work we introduce a new model of lobbying-driven…

We develop empirical models that efficiently process large amounts of unstructured product data (text, images, prices, quantities) to produce accurate hedonic price estimates and derived indices. To achieve this, we generate abstract…

As LLMs increasingly function as economic agents, the specific mechanisms LLMs use to update their belief with heterogeneous signals remain opaque. We design experiments and develop a Behavioral Kalman Filter framework to quantify how…

This paper addresses the methodology for the quarterly estimation of Compensation of Employees paid by the General Government (GG) sector, in accordance with the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). Due to the limited high-frequency data…

Market expectations about AI's economic impact may influence interest rates. Previous work has shown that US bond yields decline around the release of a sample of mostly proprietary AI models (Andrews and Farboodi 2025). I extend this…

Large-scale AI data center portfolios procure identical SKUs across geographically heterogeneous campuses, yet finance and operations require a single system-level 'world price' per SKU for budgeting and planning. A common practice is…

The declining provision of inertia by synchronous generators in modern power systems necessitates aggregating distributed energy resources (DERs) into virtual power plants (VPPs) to unlock their potential in delivering inertia and primary…

Given ongoing, human-induced, loss of wild species we propose the Target and Cost Analysis (TCA) approach as a means of incorporating biodiversity within government appraisals of public spending. Influenced by how carbon is priced in…