计量经济学
Standard methods for estimating production functions in the Olley and Pakes (1996) tradition require assumptions on input choices. We introduce a new method that exploits (increasingly available) data on a firm's expectations of its future…
Reduced-rank regressions are powerful tools used to identify co-movements within economic time series. However, this task becomes challenging when we observe matrix-valued time series, where each dimension may have a different co-movement…
This note provides a conceptual clarification of Ronald Aylmer Fisher's (1935) pioneering exact test in the context of the Lady Testing Tea experiment. It unveils a critical implicit assumption in Fisher's calibration: the taster minimizes…
Under the ACA, the federal government paid a substantially larger share of medical costs of newly eligible Medicaid enrollees than previously eligible ones. States could save up to 100% of their per-enrollee costs by reclassifying original…
We propose a novel bootstrap test of a dense model, namely factor regression, against a sparse plus dense alternative augmenting model with sparse idiosyncratic components. The asymptotic properties of the test are established under time…
In this paper, we propose a computationally simple estimator of the asymptotic covariance matrix of the Principal Components (PC) factors valid in the presence of cross-correlated idiosyncratic components. The proposed estimator of the…
Mexico has experienced a notable surge in assassinations of political candidates and mayors. This article argues that these killings are largely driven by organized crime, aiming to influence candidate selection, control local governments…
This paper tests the feasibility and estimates the cost of climate control through economic policies. It provides a toolbox for a statistical historical assessment of a Stochastic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy, and its use in…
In order to explore the possibility of carbon credits for greening projects, which play an important role in climate change mitigation, this paper examines a formula for estimating the amount of carbon fixation for greening activities in…
We introduce a new convexified matching method for missing value imputation and individualized inference inspired by computational optimal transport. Our method integrates favorable features from mainstream imputation approaches: optimal…
This paper examines the incidence and persistence of overeducation in the early careers of Spanish university graduates. We investigate the role played by the business cycle and field of study and their interaction in shaping both…
This paper identifies the probability of causation when there is sample selection. We show that the probability of causation is partially identified for individuals who are always observed regardless of treatment status and derive sharp…
In nonlinear panel data models, fixed effects methods are often criticized because they cannot identify average marginal effects (AMEs) in short panels. The common argument is that identifying AMEs requires knowledge of the distribution of…
We explore how much knowing a parametric restriction on propensity scores improves semiparametric efficiency bounds in the potential outcome framework. For stratified propensity scores, considered as a parametric model, we derive explicit…
Consider a planner who has limited knowledge of the policy's causal impact on a certain local population of interest due to a lack of data, but does have access to the publicized intervention studies performed for similar policies on…
Conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on the future paths of some other variables, are used routinely by empirical macroeconomists in a number of applied settings. In spite of this, the existing…
The deep financial turmoil in China caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated fiscal shocks and soaring public debt levels, which raises concerns about the stability and sustainability of China's public debt growth in the future. This…
Skew-t copula models are attractive for the modeling of financial data because they allow for asymmetric and extreme tail dependence. We show that the copula implicit in the skew-t distribution of Azzalini and Capitanio (2003) allows for a…
Decomposition methods are often used for producing counterfactual predictions in non-strategic settings. When the outcome of interest arises from a game-theoretic setting where agents are better off by deviating from their strategies after…
I propose novel partial identification bounds on infection prevalence from information on test rate and test yield. The approach utilizes user-specified bounds on (i) test accuracy and (ii) the extent to which tests are targeted, formalized…