使用似然度量概率预报的技能
大气与海洋物理
2007-05-23 v2
摘要
我们定义了似然,并给出了将其用作概率预报技能度量的一系列理由。我们描述了基于似然的若干不同评分,并简要研究了似然、均方误差和无知度之间的关系。
引用
@article{arxiv.physics/0308046,
title = {Use of the likelihood for measuring the skill of probabilistic forecasts},
author = {Stephen Jewson},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0308046},
year = {2007}
}
备注
Version 1 (3rd August 2003) contained some incorrect statements about the relationship between the likelihood and the Brier score. These have now been removed