The problem with the Brier score
大气与海洋物理
2007-05-23 v1
摘要
The Brier score is frequently used by meteorologists to measure the skill of binary probabilistic forecasts. We show, however, that in simple idealised cases it gives counterintuitive results. We advocate the use of an alternative measure that has a more compelling intuitive justification.
引用
@article{arxiv.physics/0401046,
title = {The problem with the Brier score},
author = {Stephen Jewson},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:physics/0401046},
year = {2007}
}