Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment
天体物理学
2009-10-31 v1 广义相对论与量子宇宙学
数据分析、统计与概率
摘要
Using a temporal version of the Copernican principle, Gott has proposed a statistical predictor of future longevity based on present age [J. R. Gott III, Nature 363, 315 (1993)] and applied the predictor to a variety of examples, including the longevity of the human species. Though Gott's proposal contains a grain of truth, it does not have the universal predictive power that he attributes to it.
引用
@article{arxiv.astro-ph/0001414,
title = {Predicting Future Duration from Present Age: A Critical Assessment},
author = {Carlton M. Caves},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:astro-ph/0001414},
year = {2009}
}
备注
17 pages, standard LaTeX; to be published in Contemporary Physics