Related papers: Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks
In this study, we propose an analysis of the earthquake clusters that occurred in North-Eastern Italy and western Slovenia from 1977 to today. Given a mainshock generating alarm in the population, we are interested in forecasting if a…
In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damaging aftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high death tolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probability of such…
Earthquakes in seismological catalogs and acoustic emission events in lab experiments can be statistically described as a linear Hawkes point process, where the spatio-temporal rate of events is a linear superposition of background…
Using the standard ETAS model of triggered seismicity, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the main statistical properties of temporal clusters, defined as the group of events triggered by a given main shock of fixed magnitude m…
Currently, one of the best performing and most popular earthquake forecasting models rely on the working hypothesis that: "locations of past background earthquakes reveal the probable location of future seismicity". As an alternative, we…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
The acoustic emission activity associated with recent rock fracture experiments under different conditions has indicated that some features of event-event triggering are independent of the details of the experiment and the materials used…
The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes started with a magnitude (M) 6.5 quake on Apr 14 on the Hinagu fault zone (FZ), followed by active seismicity including an M6.4 quake. Eventually, an M7.3 quake occurred on Apr 16 on the Futagawa FZ. We…
The statistical properties of avalanches in a dissipative particulate system under slow shear are investigated using molecular dynamics simulations. It is found that the magnitude-frequency distribution obeys the Gutenberg-Richter law only…
The fundamentals of the phenomenological theory of aftershocks are presented. The theory contains an original concept of the proper time of the earthquake source, the course of which, generally speaking, differs from the course of world…
Decades of seismological observations have highlighted the variability of foreshock occurrence prior to natural earthquakes, making thus difficult to track how earthquakes start. Here, we report on three stick-slip experiments performed on…
We propose two methods to calibrate the parameters of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog completeness. The first method allows for…
In statistical seismology, the Epidemic Type Aftershocks Sequence (ETAS) model is a branching process used world-wide to forecast earthquake intensity rates and reproduce many statistical features observed in seismicity catalogs. In this…
We consider two issues related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) what is the repeat time for the largest earthquakes in this area, and (2) what are the possibilities of numerical short-term forecasts during the 2011 earthquake…
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
We study the statistical properties of time distribution of seimicity in California by means of a new method of analysis, the Diffusion Entropy. We find that the distribution of time intervals between a large earthquake (the main shock of a…
As an object of study, we chose the global activity of strong earthquakes (M > 7). The subject of the study is the waiting time for the next strong earthquake. The purpose of the study is to compare two distributions of waiting time, one of…
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…
Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models are point processes that have found prominence in seismological modeling. Its success has led to the development of a number of different versions of the ETAS model. Among these extensions is…