Related papers: Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks
Rank-ordering statistics provides a perspective on the rare, largest elements of a population, whereas the statistics of cumulative distributions are dominated by the more numerous small events. The exponent of a power law distribution can…
The scientific process of earthquake forecasting involves estimating the probability and intensity of earthquakes in a specific area within a certain timeframe, based on seismic activity laws and observational data. Epidemic-Type Aftershock…
During any unique crisis, panic sell-off leads to a massive stock market crash that may continue for more than a day, termed as mainshock. The effect of a mainshock in the form of aftershocks can be felt throughout the recovery phase of…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
Aftershock occurrence is characterized by scaling behaviors with quite universal exponents. At the same time, deviations from universality have been proposed as a tool to discriminate aftershocks from foreshocks. Here we show that the…
We study statistical properties of the number of large earthquakes over the past century. We analyze the cumulative distribution of the number of earthquakes with magnitude larger than threshold M in time interval T, and quantify the…
We proceeded from general physical concepts based, on the one hand, on the Umoff-Poynting theorem, and on the other, on the phenomenological theory of earthquakes, and formulated the following question: What are the directions of energy…
We present a machine learning approach for the aftershock forecasting of Japanese earthquake catalogue from 2015 to 2019. Our method takes as sole input the ground surface deformation as measured by Global Positioning System (GPS) stations…
We show that Bak et al.'s unified scaling law cannot be trivially explained by a single Omori aftershock sequence. On the contrary, the spatial heterogeneity of seismicity plays a fundamental role in the unified scaling law, which implies…
Waiting-time statistics are generated from the Olami-Feder-Christensen model and shown to mimic some aspects of real seismicity. Preliminary analysis of the model data implies a recently proposed universal scaling law for the distribution…
Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies…
Long sequences of slidings of solid blocks on an inclined rough surface submitted to small controlled perturbations are examined and scaling relations are found for the time distribution of slidings between pairs of large events as well as…
We propose and study a modified version of the Olami-Feder-Christiensen model of seismicity, that includes a mechanism of structural relaxation. We obtain realistic features of seismicity that are not obtained with the original version,…
A review of the statistical properties of earthquakes is provided, centered mainly in the work of the author (apologies for that). We explain the scaling law for the recurrence-time distributions, its universal character for stationary…
Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as…
The empirical Bath's law is derived from the magnitude-difference statistical distribution of earthquake pairs. The pair distribution related to earthquake correlations is presented. The single-event distribution of dynamically correlated…
The driving concept behind one of the most successful statistical forecasting models, the ETAS model, has been that the seismicity is driven by spontaneously occurring background earthquakes that cascade into multitudes of triggered…
Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…
We study the dynamical aspects of a statistical-mechanical model for fracture of heterogeneous media: the fiber bundle model with various interaction range. Although the model does not include any thermal activation process, the system…
Inspired by spring-block models, we elaborate a "minimal" physical model of earthquakes which reproduces two main empirical seismological laws, the Gutenberg-Richter law and the Omori aftershock law. Our new point is to demonstrate that the…