Related papers: Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks
A characteristic change of seismicity has been recently uncovered when the precursory Seismic Electric Signals activities initiate before an earthquake occurrence. In particular, the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit…
We study the statistical properties of recurrence times in the self-excited Hawkes conditional Poisson process, the simplest extension of the Poisson process that takes into account how the past events influence the occurrence of future…
Statistical properties of earthquakes are studied both by the analysis of real earthquake catalog of Japan and by numerical computer simulations of the spring-block model in both one and two dimensions. Particular attention is paid to the…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging to assess the reliability of inverted ETAS parameters for a…
The advanced machine learning algorithm NESTORE (Next STrOng Related Earthquake) was developed to forecast strong aftershocks in earthquake sequences and has been successfully tested in Italy, western Slovenia, Greece, and California.…
By analyzing a southern California earthquake catalog, Davidsen and Paczuski [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94, 048501 (2005)] claim to have found evidence contradicting the theory of aftershock zone scaling in favor of scale-free statistics. We present…
Earthquake aftershock identification is closely related to the question "Are aftershocks different from the rest of earthquakes?" We give a positive answer to this question and introduce a general statistical procedure for clustering…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
We propose a new version of the ETAS model, which we also analyze theoretically. As for the standard ETAS model, we assume the Gutenberg-Richter law as a probability density function for background events' magnitude. Instead, the magnitude…
It has been long stated that there are profound analogies between fracture experiments and earthquakes; however, few works attempt a complete characterization of the parallelisms between these so separate phenomena. We study the Acoustic…
The district of southern California and Japan are divided into small cubic cells, each of which is regarded as a vertex of a graph if earthquakes occur therein. Two successive earthquakes define an edge and a loop, which replace the complex…
This paper develops a novel method, based on hidden Markov models, to forecast earthquakes and applies the method to mainshock seismic activity in southern California and western Nevada. The forecasts are of the probability of a mainshock…
We report precursory seismic patterns prior to the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes, as measured by four different methods based on changes in seismicity that can be used for earthquake forecasting: the b-value method, two methods of seismic…
A recently proposed unified scaling law for interoccurrence times of earthquakes [P. Bak et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 88}, 178501 (2002)] is analyzed, both theoretically and with data from Southern California. We decompose the…
We consider three questions related to the 2011 Tohoku mega-earthquake: (1) Why was the event size so grossly under-estimated? (2) How should we evaluate the chances of giant earthquakes in subduction zones? and (3) What is the repeat time…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
It had been observed by Linkov, Petrova and Osipov (1992) that there exist periodic 4-6 hours pulses of 200 microHz seismogravitational oscillations ( SGO ) before 95 % of powerful earthquakes. We explain this by beating between an…
Aftershocks of the 2012 Off-Coast of Sumatra Earthquake Sequence exhibit a complex and diffuse spatial distribution. The first-order complexity in aftershock distribution is clear and well beyond the influence of typical earthquake location…
The procedure by means of which the occurrence time of an impending mainshock can be identified by analyzing in natural time the seismicity in the candidate area subsequent to the recording of a precursory Seismic Electric Signals (SES)…
Spatio-temporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. Particular attention is paid to clarifying how the statistical…