Related papers: Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks
This article proposes a spatiotemporal point process model that enhances the classical Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model by incorporating a renewal main-shock arrival process, which we term the renewal ETAS (RETAS) model. This…
We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum, that depends on the mainshock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and…
Non-inertial afterslip has been inferred to occur following large earthquakes. An explanation for this slow slip phenomenon is that coseismically generated stresses induce sliding on parts of a fault surface with velocity-strengthening…
A megathrust subduction earthquake (Mw7.8) struck the coast of Ecuador on April 16th, 2016 at 23h58 UTC. This earthquake is one of the best-recorded megathrust events up to date. Besides the mainshock, two large aftershocks have been…
Despite the importance of predicting evacuation mobility dynamics after large scale disasters for effective first response and disaster relief, our general understanding of evacuation behavior remains limited because of the lack of…
The probability distribution of inter-event time (IET) between two consecutive earthquakes is a measure for the uncertainty in the occurrence time of earthquakes in a region of interest. It is well known that the IET distribution for…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
Strong earthquakes can have a dual impact on the slow-moving landslide budget of a landscape by either triggering new actively deforming hillslopes or stabilizing existing ones. However, their regional-scale influence on hillslope processes…
Statistical properties of the inhomogeneous version of the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) model of earthquakes is investigated by numerical simulations. The spatial inhomogeneity is assumed to be dynamical. Critical features found in the…
Forecasting the full distribution of the number of earthquakes is revealed to be inherently superior to forecasting their mean. Forecasting the full distribution of earthquake numbers is also shown to yield robust projections in the…
Fault ruptures of regular earthquakes typically grow in a self-similar manner, where the radiated energy is proportional to the seismic moment. Their proportionality factor, termed as scaled energy, has been conventionally described as the…
Many time series in natural and social sciences can be seen as resulting from an interplay between exogenous influences and an endogenous organization. We use a simple (ETAS) model of events occurring sequentially, in which future events…
We have estimated the performance of discrimination criterion based on the P/S spectral amplitude ratios obtained from six underground tests conducted by the DPRK since October 2006 and six aftershocks induced by the last two explosions.…
Most materials exhibit creep memory under the action of a constant load. The memory behavior is governed by Andrade's creep law, which also has an inherent connection with the Omori-Utsu law of earthquake aftershocks. Both empirical laws…
Numerical simulations and a mean-field analysis of a sandpile model of earthquake aftershocks in 1d, 2d and 3d euclidean lattices determine that the average stress decays in a punctuated fashion after a main shock, with events occurring at…
The GPS derived anomalous TEC disturbances before earthquakes were discovered in the last years using global and regional TEC maps, measurements over individual stations as well as measurements along individual GPS satellite passes. For…
This research presents one possible way for imminent prediction of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicenter coordinates by solving the inverse problem using a data acquisition network system for monitoring, archiving and complex analysis…
Earthquake prediction and seismic hazard assessment remain fundamental challenges in geophysics, with existing machine learning approaches often operating as black boxes that ignore established physical laws. We introduce POSEIDON…
The phenomenon of aftershocks is studied in view of science of complexity. In particular, three different concepts are examined: (i) the complex-network representation of seismicity, (ii) the event-event correlations, and (iii) the effects…
This paper provides theoretical and practical arguments regarding the possibility of predicting strong and major earthquakes worldwide. Many strong and major earthquakes can be predicted at least two to five months in advance, based on…