Related papers: Increased earthquake rate prior to mainshocks
The Internet is a complex system, whose temporal behavior is highly nonstationary and exhibits sudden drastic changes regarded as main shocks or catastrophes. Here, analyzing a set of time series data of round-trip tim measured in echo…
In this work the distribution of inter-occurrence times between earthquakes in aftershock sequences is analyzed and a model based on a non-homogeneous Poisson (NHP) process is proposed to quantify the observed scaling. In this model the…
This paper is devoted to the memory of the outstanding Japanese scientist. In 1896, Fusakichi Omori discovered the law of the aftershocks evolution that bears his name. We represent the Omori law in the form of a differential equation. This…
Analysis of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26.12.2004 (M = 9) has allowed us to identify two non- trivial properties of the dynamics of aftershocks. First, the strongest aftershock (M = 7.2) was likely triggered by the round-the-world…
The paper provides a synoptic overview of a series of works carried out by a group of researchers at the Institute of Physics of the Earth RAS with the aim of finding new approaches to the problems of earthquake physics. The fundamental…
The ETAS models are currently the most popular in the field of earthquake forecasting. The MCMC method is time-consuming and limited by parameter correlation while bringing parameter uncertainty. The INLA-based method "inlabru" solves these…
Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes…
Declustering aims to divide earthquake catalogs into independent events (mainshocks), and dependent (clustered) events, and is an integral component of many seismicity studies, including seismic hazard assessment. We assess the effect of…
Forecast models in statistical seismology are commonly evaluated with log-likelihood scores of the full distribution P(n) of earthquake numbers, yet heavy tails and out-of-range observations can bias model ranking. We develop a tail-aware…
We study analytically and by numerical simulations the statistics of the aftershocks generated after large avalanches in models of interface depinning that include viscoelastic relaxation effects. We find in all the analyzed cases that the…
We propose a novel method for analyzing precursory seismic data before an earthquake that treats them as a Markov process and distinguishes the background noise from real fluctuations due to an earthquake. A short time (on the order of…
Earthquake phenomenology exhibits a number of power law distributions including the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-size statistics and the Omori law for aftershock decay rates. In search for a basic model that renders correct predictions on…
It is natural to call the trinity of foreshocks, main shock and aftershocks a classical triad. The magnitude of the main shock is always greater than the maximum magnitudes of foreshocks and aftershocks. In the classical triad, the number…
Strong deep earthquakes occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk, May 24, 2013 at 05:44 UTC. The magnitude of the earthquake is M = 8.3, the depth of the hypocenter is 629 km. The earthquake was accompanied by the deep-focus aftershocks. The paper is…
The interevent time distribution characterizes the temporal occurrence in seismic catalogs. Universal scaling properties of this distribution have been evidenced for entire catalogs and seismic sequences. Recently, these universal features…
Following Hergarten and Neugebauer [2002] who discovered aftershock and foreshock sequences in the Olami-Feder-Christensen (OFC) discrete block-spring earthquake model, we investigate to what degree the simple toppling mechanism of this…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Seismicity and faulting within the Earth crust are characterized by many scaling laws that are usually interpreted as qualifying the existence of underlying physical mechanisms associated with some kind of criticality in the sense of phase…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
We consider an epidemic-type aftershock model (ETAS($F$)) for a large class of distributions $F$ determining the number of direct aftershocks. This class includes Poisson, Geometric, Negative Binomial distributions and many other. Assuming…