Dynamics of a financial market index after a crash
Statistical Mechanics
2008-12-02 v1 Statistical Finance
Abstract
We discuss the statistical properties of index returns in a financial market just after a major market crash. The observed non-stationary behavior of index returns is characterized in terms of the exceedances over a given threshold. This characterization is analogous to the Omori law originally observed in geophysics. By performing numerical simulations and theoretical modelling, we show that the nonlinear behavior observed in real market crashes cannot be described by a GARCH(1,1) model. We also show that the time evolution of the Value at Risk observed just after a major crash is described by a power-law function lacking a typical scale.
Cite
@article{arxiv.cond-mat/0209685,
title = {Dynamics of a financial market index after a crash},
author = {Fabrizio Lillo and Rosario N. Mantegna},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:cond-mat/0209685},
year = {2008}
}
Comments
5 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of the 8th conference "Computing in Economics and Finance"