Related papers: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using …
Small area estimation (SAE) entails estimating characteristics of interest for domains, often geographical areas, in which there may be few or no samples available. SAE has a long history and a wide variety of methods have been suggested,…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations provide a blueprint of a better future by 'leaving no one behind', and, to achieve the SDGs by 2030, poor countries require immense volumes of development aid. In this paper, we…
This study utilizes mathematical models to assess progress toward achieving the UNAIDS 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 targets aimed at managing and eradicating HIV/AIDS. It contrasts stochastic and deterministic models, focusing on their utility in…
Dynamic models have been successfully used in producing estimates of HIV epidemics at the national level due to their epidemiological nature and their ability to estimate prevalence, incidence, and mortality rates simultaneously. Recently,…
Perinatal epidemiology often aims to evaluate exposures on infant outcomes. When the exposure affects the composition of people who give birth to live infants (e.g., by affecting fertility, behavior, or birth outcomes), this "live birth…
We propose a restricted win probability estimand for comparing treatments in a randomized trial with a time-to-event outcome. We also propose Bayesian estimators for this summary measure as well as the unrestricted win probability. Bayesian…
Psychiatric and social epidemiology often involves assessing the effects of environmental exposure on outcomes that are difficult to measure directly. To address this problem, it is common to measure outcomes using a comprehensive battery…
An increasing amount of geo-referenced mobile phone data enables the identification of behavioral patterns, habits and movements of people. With this data, we can extract the knowledge potentially useful for many applications including the…
This paper focuses on the Bayesian Network Propensity Score (BNPS), a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in observational studies characterized by unknown (and likely unbalanced) designs and complex dependency structures among…
One of the main approaches used to construct prior distributions for objective Bayes methods is the concept of random imaginary observations. Under this setup, the expected-posterior prior (EPP) offers several advantages, among which it has…
Following [Diggle 2011, Greenland 1995], we give a simple formula for the Bayesian posterior density of a prevalence parameter based on unreliable testing of a population. This problem is of particular importance when the false positive…
An informative sampling design leads to the selection of units whose inclusion probabilities are correlated with the response variable of interest. Model inference performed on the resulting observed sample will be biased for the population…
This document provides the statistical analytic plan (SAP) for evaluating health outcomes in the SEARCH-Youth study, a cluster randomized trial designed to evaluate the effect of a combination intervention on HIV viral suppression among…
Contact tracing data collected from disease outbreaks has received relatively little attention in the epidemic modelling literature because it is thought to be unreliable: infection sources might be wrongly attributed, or data might be…
Standard Bayesian inference schemes are infeasible for inverse problems with computationally expensive forward models. A common solution is to replace the model with a cheaper surrogate. To avoid overconfident conclusions, it is essential…
In this paper we set out general principles and develop geostatistical methods for the analysis of data from spatio-temporally referenced prevalence surveys. Our objective is to provide a tutorial guide that can be used in order to identify…
We introduce a new method for inference in stochastic epidemic models which uses recursive multinomial approximations to integrate over unobserved variables and thus circumvent likelihood intractability. The method is applicable to a class…
Ambitious global goals have been established to provide universal access to affordable modern contraceptive methods. The UN's sustainable development goal 3.7.1 proposes satisfying the demand for family planning (FP) services by increasing…
Consider a population of individuals and a network that encodes social connections among them. We are interested in making inference on finite population and super-population estimands that are a function of both individuals' responses and…