Related papers: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using …
The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the…
Accurate estimates of the reproduction ratio are crucial to project infectious disease epidemic evolution and guide public health response. Here, we prove that estimates of the reproduction ratio based on inference from surveillance data…
We study the convergence rates of empirical Bayes posterior distributions for nonparametric and high-dimensional inference. We show that as long as the hyperparameter set is discrete, the empirical Bayes posterior distribution induced by…
HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) drastically reduces the risk of HIV infection if taken as prescribed, providing almost perfect protection even during unprotected sexual intercourse. Although this has been transformative in reducing new…
The advent and subsequent widespread availability of preventive vaccines has altered the course of public health over the past century. Despite this success, effective vaccines to prevent many high-burden diseases, including HIV, have been…
Epidemiologic screening programs often make use of tests with small, but non-zero probabilities of misdiagnosis. In this article, we assume the target population is finite with a fixed number of true cases, and that we apply an imperfect…
This research reports on the relationship and significance of social-economic factors (age, sex, employment status) and modes of HIV/AIDS transmission to the HIV/AIDS spread. Logistic regression model, a form of probabilistic function for…
Family planning is a global development priority and a key indicator of reproductive health. Monitoring progress is challenged by gaps in survey data across countries. The United Nations Population Division addresses this with the Family…
We propose a method for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of migration rates for all countries, broken down by age and sex. Joint trajectories for all countries are constrained to satisfy the requirement of zero global net…
It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the…
Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we…
To make informative public policy decisions in battling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to know the disease prevalence in a population. There are two intertwined difficulties in estimating this prevalence based on testing…
The aim of this work is to develop methods for studying the determinants of marriage incidence using marriage histories collected under two different types of retrospective cross-sectional study designs. These designs are: sampling of ever…
Bayesian binary regression is a prosperous area of research due to the computational challenges encountered by currently available methods either for high-dimensional settings or large datasets, or both. In the present work, we focus on the…
We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur…
This article introduces novel methodologies for estimating contextual exposure to HIV population viral load using GPS data. We propose a comprehensive analytical framework comprising (i) local (grid-cell level) estimation of HIV population…
This study introduces the Exponentiated-Exponential-Pareto-Half Normal Mixture Distribution (EEPHND), a novel hybrid model developed to overcome the limitations of classical distributions in modeling complex real-world data. By compounding…
In low-resource settings, prevalence mapping relies on empirical prevalence data from a finite, often spatially sparse, set of surveys of communities within the region of interest, possibly supplemented by remotely sensed images that can…
In oncology, phase II studies are crucial for clinical development plans as such studies identify potent agents with sufficient activity to continue development in the subsequent phase III trials. Traditionally, phase II studies are…
We establish a stochastic HIV/AIDS model for the individuals with protection awareness and reveal how the protection awareness plays its important role in the control of AIDS. We firstly show that there exists a global positive solution for…