Related papers: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using …
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other…
Approximate Bayesian inference methods provide a powerful suite of tools for finding approximations to intractable posterior distributions. However, machine learning applications typically involve selecting actions, which -- in a Bayesian…
When using multiple data sources in an analysis, it is important to understand the influence of each data source on the analysis and the consistency of the data sources with each other and the model. We suggest the use of a retrospective…
Several diseases related to cell proliferation are characterized by the accumulation of somatic DNA changes, with respect to wildtype conditions. Cancer and HIV are two common examples of such diseases, where the mutational load in the…
In this paper, we construct a model to describe the transmission of HIV in a homogeneous host population. By considering the specific mechanism of HIV, we derive a model structured in three successive stages: (i) primary infection, (ii)…
The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief…
Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…
We consider the standard three-component differential equation model for the growth of an HIV virion population in an infected host in the absence of drug therapy. The dynamical properties of the model are determined by the set of values of…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
The doubly robust estimator, which models both the propensity score and outcomes, is a popular approach to estimate the average treatment effect in the potential outcome setting. The primary appeal of this estimator is its theoretical…
HIV is a retrovirus that attacks the human immune system and can lead to death without proper treatment. In collaboration with the WHO and Wits University, we study how to improve the efficiency of HIV testing with the goal of eventual…
Households represent a key unit of interest in infectious disease epidemiology, in both empirical studies and mathematical modelling. The within-household transmission potential of a disease is often summarised by a secondary attack ratio…
We present BEEP (Biomedical Evidence-Enhanced Predictions), a novel approach for clinical outcome prediction that retrieves patient-specific medical literature and incorporates it into predictive models. Based on each individual patient's…
Accurate estimates of subnational health and demographic indicators are critical for informing health policy decisions. Many countries collect relevant data using complex household surveys, but when data are limited, direct survey weighted…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
There are limited options to estimate the treatment effects of variables which are continuous and measured at multiple time points, particularly if the true dose-response curve should be estimated as closely as possible. However, these…
This paper describes methodological details used by WHO in 2015 to estimate TB incidence, prevalence and mortality. Incidence and mortality are disaggregated by HIV status, age and sex. Methods to derive MDR-TB burden indicators are…
We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…
Expectation propagation (EP) is a deterministic approximation algorithm that is often used to perform approximate Bayesian parameter learning. EP approximates the full intractable posterior distribution through a set of local approximations…
In vaccine studies for infectious diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the frequency and type of contacts between study participants and infectious sources are among the most informative risk factors, but are often not…