Related papers: Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using …
The United Nations (UN) issued official probabilistic population projections for all countries to 2100 in July 2015. This was done by simulating future levels of total fertility and life expectancy from Bayesian hierarchical models, and…
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…
Planning, implementation and evaluation of public health policies to control the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic require regular monitoring of disease burden. This includes the proportion living with HIV, whether diagnosed or…
Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…
Understanding historical trends in the epidemic of HIV is important for assessing current and projecting future trends in prevalence, incidence and mortality and for evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of control measures. In…
Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…
Unintended pregnancy and abortion estimates are needed to inform and motivate investment in global health programmes and policies. Variability in the availability and reliability of data poses challenges for producing estimates. We…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Local estimates of HIV-prevalence provide information that can be used to target interventions and consequently increase the efficiency of the resources. This closer-to-optimal allocation can lead to better health outcomes, including the…
The United Nations regularly publishes projections of the populations of all the world's countries broken down by age and sex. These projections are the de facto standard and are widely used by international organizations, governments and…
As the global HIV pandemic enters its fourth decade, increasing numbers of surveillance sites have been established which allows countries to look into the epidemics at a finer scale, e.g. at sub-national levels. Currently, the epidemic…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for…
Estimating the number of the number of people from hidden and/or marginalised populations - such as people dependent on opioids or cocaine - is important to guide policy decisions and provision of harm reduction services. Methods such as…
The past decade has seen tremendous progress in the development of biomedical agents that are effective as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. To expand the choice of products and delivery methods, new medications and…
Cross-sectional incidence estimation based on recency testing has become a widely used tool in HIV research. Recently, this method has gained prominence in HIV prevention trials to estimate the "placebo" incidence that participants might…
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) consists in the use of an antiretroviral medication to prevent the acquisition of HIV infection by uninfected individuals and has recently demonstrated to be highly efficacious for HIV prevention. We propose…
Network surveys of key populations at risk for HIV are an essential part of the effort to understand how the epidemic spreads and how it can be prevented. Estimation of population values from the sample data has been probematical, however,…
Pathogen deep-sequencing is an increasingly routinely used technology in infectious disease surveillance. We present a semi-parametric Bayesian Poisson model to exploit these emerging data for inferring infectious disease transmission flows…
Accurate HIV incidence estimation based on individual recent infection status (recent vs long-term infection) is important for monitoring the epidemic, targeting interventions to those at greatest risk of new infection, and evaluating…