相关论文: Mortality decrease and mathematical limit of longe…

In recent years, improvements in all-cause mortality rates and life expectancies for males and females in England and Wales have slowed down. In this paper, cause-specific mortality data for England and Wales from 2001 to 2018 are used to…

The risk of dying increases exponentially with age, in humans as well as in many other species. This increase is often attributed to the "accumulation of damage" known to occur in many biological structures and systems. The aim of this…

Recently we developed a new framework in Hirz et al (2015) to model stochastic mortality using extended CreditRisk$^+$ methodology which is very different from traditional time series methods used for mortality modelling previously. In this…

We present some analytic results for the steady states of the Penna model of sen escence, generalised to allow genetically identical individuals to die at differ ent ages via an arbitrary survival function. Modelling this with a Fermi…

Using German forest health monitoring data we investigate the main drivers leading to tree mortality and the association between defoliation and mortality; in particular (a) whether defoliation is a proxy for other covariates (climate,…

Further to the proposal and application of a stochastic methodology and the resulting first exit time distribution function to life table data we introduce a theoretical framework for the estimation of the maximum deterioration age and to…

At the physiological level, aging is neither rigid nor unchangeable. Instead, the molecular and mechanisms driving aging are sufficiently plastic that a variety of diverse interventions--dietary, pharmaceutical, and genetic--have been…

In this paper we explore the life expectancy limits by based on the stochastic modeling of mortality and applying the first exit or hitting time theory of a stochastic process. The main assumption is that the health state or the "vitality",…

Does the human lifespan have an impenetrable biological upper limit which ultimately will stop further increase in life lengths? This question is important for understanding aging, and for society, and has led to intense controversies.…

Infant deaths and old age deaths are very different. The former are mostly due to severe congenital malformations of one or a small number of specific organs. On the contrary, old age deaths are largely the outcome of a long process of…

How long people live depends on their health, and how it changes with age. Individual health can be tracked by the accumulation of age-related health deficits. The fraction of age-related deficits is a simple quantitative measure of human…

The study considers the model of an abstract organism, called Arbitrary Oscillator (ArbO), which is capable of making decisions at each timed step. These decisions are 'critical' since, randomly, their outcome can be 'fatal' for ArbO, thus…

We propose a probabilistic mortality forecasting model that can be applied to derive forecasts for populations with regular and irregular mortality developments. Our model (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model dynamic age…

Demographic projections of future mortality rates involve a high level of uncertainty and require stochastic mortality models. The current paper investigates forward mortality models driven by a (possibly infinite dimensional) Wiener…

Assuming the deleterious mutations in the Penna ageing model to affect mainly the young ages, we get an enhanced mortality at very young age, followed by a minimum of the mortality, and then the usual exponential increase of mortality with…

In usual demographic analysis, force of mortality is a function of one variable, that is, of age. In this article bi-variate and multivariate force of mortality functions are introduced for the first time to explain mortality differentials.…

Ageing's sensitivity to natural selection has long been discussed because of its apparent negative effect on individual's fitness. Thanks to the recently described (Smurf) 2-phase model of ageing we were allowed to propose a fresh angle for…

The issue of longevity has been long time recognized as one of key concepts in demography. A particular aspect of longevity addressed in this paper is the difference in average observed duration of life for female and male population,…

We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…