相关论文: Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperat…
We are developing schemes that predict future hurricane numbers by first predicting future sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and then apply the observed statistical relationship between SST and hurricane numbers. As part of this overall…
One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme that relies, in part, on statistical modelling of the empirical relationship between Atlantic sea surface temperatures and landfalling hurricane numbers. We test out a number of simple…
We are building a hurricane number prediction scheme based on first predicting main development region sea surface temperature (SST), then predicting the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic basin given the SST prediction, and finally…
One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the…
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and…
In situ and remotely sensed observations have potential to facilitate data-driven predictive models for oceanography. A suite of machine learning models, including regression, decision tree and deep learning approaches were developed to…
Tropical cyclone and sea surface temperature data have been used in several studies to forecast the total number of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Sea surface temperature (SST) and latent heat flux (LHF) are correlated with tropical…
In this paper, we study the problem of forecasting the next year's number of Atlantic hurricanes, which is relevant in many fields of applications such as land-use planning, hazard mitigation, reinsurance and long-term weather derivative…
The rising number of extreme climate events in the past decades has motivated the need for a thorough consideration of tropical cyclone genesis and intensity, given the sea-surface temperature (SST). In this paper, we present an analysis of…
The growing adoption of machine learning (ML) in modelling atmospheric and oceanic processes offers a promising alternative to traditional numerical methods. It is essential to benchmark the performance of both ML and physics-informed ML…
A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane…
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…
Accurately predicting sea-surface temperature weeks to months into the future is an important step toward long term weather forecasting. Standard atmosphere-ocean coupled numerical models provide accurate sea-surface forecasts on the scale…
We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the…
We study the temporal correlations in the sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations around the seasonal mean values in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. We apply a method that systematically overcome possible trends in the data. We find…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
Annual North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) counts are frequently modeled as a Poisson process with a state-dependent rate. We provide a lower bound on the forecasting error of this class of models. Remarkably we find that this bound is…
Evidence is provided that the global distribution of tropical hurricanes is principally determined by a universal function H of a single variable z that in turn is expressible in terms of the local sea surface temperature and latitude. The…
The spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) plays a central role in shaping the climate system, yet the influence of land surface temperature (LST) remains poorly understood. Using a state-of-the-art coupled ocean--land--atmosphere…