相关论文: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A …
The Planetary Boundary for Climate Change has been surpassed, and humanity must therefore decide on a pathway back to the safe operating space below the Planetary boundaries to minimise the risk of deleterious or even catastrophic…
Oxygen isotopes in marine cherts have been used to infer hot oceans during the Archean with temperatures between 60{\deg}C (333 K) and 80{\deg}C (353 K). Such climates are challenging for the early Earth warmed by the faint young Sun. The…
Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate…
Observed records of climate extremes provide an incomplete view of risk, missing "unseen" events beyond historical experience. Ignoring spatial dependence further underestimates hazards striking multiple locations simultaneously. We…
We first recall fundamentals of elementary climate physics: solar constant, radiative balance, greenhouse effect, astronomical parameters of the climate (theory of Milankovitch). Without disputing the analyzes of climatologists and the…
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the climate and economy aim to analyze the impact and efficacy of policies that aim to control climate change, such as carbon taxes and subsidies. A major characteristic of IAMs is that their…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The temperature in the transient climate response is lower than the equilibrium temperature for the same amount of forcing. The degree of disequilibrium is not constant in time and depends on various climate parameters. We derive intuition…
We propose a new statistical reduced complexity climate model. The centerpiece of the model consists of a set of physical equations for the global climate system which we show how to cast in non-linear state space form. The parameters in…
The classical DICE model is a widely accepted integrated assessment model for the joint modeling of economic and climate systems, where all model state variables evolve over time deterministically. We reformulate and solve the DICE model as…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…
The economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Two of the most important uncertainties are the sensitivity of the climate system and the so-called damage functions, which relate climate change to economic damages and benefits.…
The long-term relationship between radiative forcing and surface temperature is imperative for predicting the impacts of climate change. This study employs multicointegration to characterize this relationship and uses Transformed and…
With climate change, we are expecting more frequent extreme weather events in many regions worldwide. These events can trigger disruptive, deadly natural hazards, which catch the attention of the media and raise awareness in citizens and…
This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using…
Near-surface extreme winds profoundly affect human society, yet process-based understanding of their changes under climate forcings remains limited. This study systematically investigates the responses of high (HWE) and low (LWE) wind…