相关论文: El Nino and the Delayed Action Oscillator

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability plays a key role in the global weather and climate system, with phenomena such as El Ni\~{n}o-Southern Oscillation regarded as a major source of interannual climate variability at the global scale.…

We explore the anomalous behavior of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in zonal wind which it exhibited, since February 2016. In more detail, QBO interrupted its regular pattern and the eastward stratospheric winds…

The purpose of this review-and-research paper is twofold: (i) to review the role played in climate dynamics by fluid-dynamical models; and (ii) to contribute to the understanding and reduction of the uncertainties in future climate-change…

Solution of Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model of dynamical system may not agree with its observed values. Often this discrepancy can be attributed to unmodeled forcings in the evolution rule of the dynamical system. In this…

This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one~thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the…

It is shown that, the wavelet regression detrended fluctuations of the monthly global temperature data (land and ocean combined) for the period 1880-2009yy, are completely dominated by one-third subharmonic resonance to annual forcing (both…

The dynamics of glacial cycles is studied in terms of the dynamical systems theory. We explore the dependence of the climate state on the phase of astronomical forcing by examining five conceptual models of glacial cycles proposed in the…

In this study we used the sea surface temperature (SST), El-Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) time-series for the time period 1900-2012 in order to investigate plausible manifestation of sharp increases…

Much work has been done on relaxation oscillations and other simple oscillators in conceptual climate models. However, the oscillatory patterns in climate data are often more complicated than what can be described by such mechanisms. This…

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record…

Some initial investigations into various atmospheric phenomena and the influence of the solar cycle on weather have been made. Strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, which cause cold and dry winter weather in North West…

Climate change is accelerating the frequency and severity of unprecedented events, deviating from established patterns. Predicting these out-of-distribution (OOD) events is critical for assessing risks and guiding climate adaptation. While…

Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…

El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts global climate and societal impacts, but real-time prediction with lead times beyond one year remains challenging. Dynamical models suffer from large biases and uncertainties, while deep learning…

We consider the problem of forecasting complex, nonlinear space-time processes when observations provide only partial information of on the system's state. We propose a natural data-driven framework, where the system's dynamics are modelled…

Palaeoclimate archives contain information on climate variability, trends and mechanisms. Models are developed to explain observations and predict the response of the climate system to perturbations, in particular perturbations associated…

Nonlinear phenomena are essential ingredients in many oceanic and atmospheric processes, and successful understanding of them benefits from multidisciplinary collaboration between oceanographers, meteorologists, physicists and…

We investigate a low-dimensional slow-fast model to understand the dynamical origin of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation. A close inspection of the system dynamics using several bifurcation plots reveals that a sudden large expansion of the…

It is shown that the periodic alteration of night and day provides a chaotic dissipation mechanism for the North Atlantic (NAO) and Southern (SOI) climate oscillations. The wavelet regression detrended daily NAO index for last 60 years and…

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts.…