相关论文: Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold mode…

In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…

Interactions and time shape many aspects of life. Everyday activities -- like conversations, emails, money transfers, citations, and even acts of violence -- are relational events: interactions between a sender and a receiver at a specific…

Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…

Extreme events can come either from point processes, when the size or energy of the events is above a certain threshold, or from time series, when the intensity of a signal surpasses a threshold value. We are particularly concerned by the…

We consider control of reaction and population systems by deterministically imposed transitions between the states with different numbers of particles or individuals. Even where the imposed transitions are significantly less frequent than…

We consider stochastic growth models for populations organized in colonies and subject to uniform catastrophes. To assess population viability, we analyze scenarios in which individuals adopt dispersion strategies after catastrophic events.…

In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…

The network of interactions in complex systems, strongly influences their resilience, the system capability to resist to external perturbations or structural damages and to promptly recover thereafter. The phenomenon manifests itself in…

We propose enforcing constraints on Model-Based Diffusion by introducing emerging barrier functions inspired by interior point methods. We demonstrate that the standard Model-Based Diffusion algorithm can lead to catastrophic performance…

The dynamics of protection processes has been a fundamental challenge in systemic risk analysis. The conceptual principle and methodological techniques behind the mechanisms involved [in such dynamics] have been harder to grasp than…

Modeling the risk of extreme weather events in a changing climate is essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. Although the available low-resolution climate models capture different scenarios, accurate risk…

Population extinction is a rare event which requires overcoming an effective barrier. We show that the extinction rate can be fragile: a small change in the system parameters leads to an exponentially strong change of the rate, with the…

Active systems across scales, ranging from molecular machines to human crowds, are usually modeled as assemblies of self-propelled particles driven by internally generated forces. However, these models often assume memoryless dynamics and…

I give an overview of rare event simulation techniques to generate dynamical pathways across high free energy barriers. The methods on which I will concentrate are the reactive flux approach, transition path sampling, (replica-exchange)…

Extreme events are emergent phenomena in multi-particle transport processes on complex networks. In practice, such events could range from power blackouts to call drops in cellular networks to traffic congestion on roads. All the earlier…

Daily, are reported systems in nature that present anomalous diffusion phenomena due to irregularities of medium, traps or reactions process. In this scenario, the diffusion with traps or localised--reactions emerge through various…

To minimize property loss and death count in terror attacks and other emergent scenarios, attention given to timely and effective evacuation cannot be enough. Due to limited evacuation resource, i.e., number of available exits, there exists…

Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic…

We consider the dynamics of a three-species system incorporating the Allee Effect, focussing on its influence on the emergence of extreme events in the system. First we find that under Allee effect the regular periodic dynamics changes to…

Human beings face threats because of unexpected happenings, which can be avoided through an adequate crisis evacuation plan, which is vital to stop wound and demise as its negative results. Consequently, different typical evacuation…