相关论文: Production networks and failure avalanches

The transient fluctuation of the prosperity of firms in a network economy is investigated with an abstract stochastic model. The model describes the profit which firms make when they sell materials to a firm which produces a product and the…

Production networks arise from supply and customer relations among firms. These systems are gaining growing attention as a consequence of disruptions due to natural or man-made disasters that happened in the last years, such as the Covid-19…

This paper investigates how the granularity of supply-chain data affects the propagation of economic shocks through production networks. Using newly constructed establishment-level supply chains with product-level information links for…

Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…

National economies rest on networks of millions of customer-supplier relations. Some companies -- in the case of their default -- can trigger significant cascades of shock in the supply-chain network and are thus systemically risky. Up to…

Network theory is rapidly changing our understanding of complex systems, but the relevance of topological features for the dynamic behavior of metabolic networks, food webs, production systems, information networks, or cascade failures of…

Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand side of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct…

We study how idiosyncratic firm-level shocks generate aggregate volatility and tail risk when they propagate through a production network under overlapping adjustment: new productivity draws arrive before the economy reaches the static…

Most infrastructure networks evolve and operate in a decentralized fashion, which may adversely impact the allocation of resources across the system. Here we investigate this question by focusing on the relation between capacity and load in…

Physical concepts developed to describe instabilities in traffic flows can be generalized in a way that allows one to understand the well-known instability of supply chains (the so-called ``bullwhip effect''). That is, small variations in…

We show how to treat supply networks as physical transport problems governed by balance equations and equations for the adaptation of production speeds. Although the non-linear behaviour is different, the linearized set of coupled…

Economic models with input-output networks assume that firm or sector (unit) growth is driven by a weighted sum of trade partners' growth and an independently-drawn idiosyncratic shock. I show that the idiosyncratic risk assumption in a…

Power generation and distribution remains an important topic of discussion since the industrial revolution. As the system continues to grow, it needs to evolve both in infrastructure, robustness and its resilience to deal with failures. One…

We study a supply chain consisting of production-inventory systems at several locations which are coupled by a common supplier. Demand of customers arrives at each production system according to a Poisson process and is lost if the local…

We propose a simple model that aims at describing, in a stylized manner, how local breakdowns due unbalances or congestion propagate in real dynamical networks. The model converges to a self-organized critical stationary state in which the…

We live in a modern world supported by large, complex networks. Examples range from financial markets to communication and transportation systems. In many realistic situations the flow of physical quantities in the network, as characterized…

We address the problem of banking system resilience by applying off-equilibrium statistical physics to a system of particles, representing the economic agents, modelled according to the theoretical foundation of the current banking…

Supply networks are essential for modern production, yet their critical properties remain understudied. We present a stochastic model with random production capacities to analyze material flow to a root node, focusing on topology and buffer…

Technological improvement is the most important cause of long-term economic growth. We study the effects of technology improvement in the setting of a production network, in which each producer buys input goods and converts them to other…

In the General Theory, Keynes remarked that the economy's state depends on expectations, and that these expectations can be subject to sudden swings. In this work, we develop a multiple equilibria behavioural business cycle model that can…