相关论文: Recurrence analysis of the NASDAQ crash of April 2…

Recurrence Plot (RP) and Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) are signal numerical analysis methodologies able to work with non linear dynamical systems and non stationarity. Moreover they well evidence changes in the states of a…

Financial markets are systems with the complex behavior, that can be hardly analyzed by means of linear methods. Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) is a nonlinear methodology, which is able to work with the nonstationary and short…

Nowadays, when crashes and crises are rather frequent events, an effective monitoring system for the international financial market is needed. Modern nonlinear methods, such as Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA), demonstrate the…

Recurrence plot is a quite easy tool to be used in time series analysis,in particular for measuring unstable periodic orbits embedded in a chaotic dynamical system. Recurrence quantified analysis (RQA) is an advance tool that allows the…

Keeping a basic tenet of economic theory, rational expectations, we model the nonlinear positive feedback between agents in the stock market as an interplay between nonlinearity and multiplicative noise. The derived hyperbolic stochastic…

Recurrence plots (RPs) are powerful tools for visualizing time series dynamics; however, traditional Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) often relies on global metrics, such as line counting, that can overlook system-specific,…

Recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) is a widely used tool for studying complex dynamical systems, but its standard implementation requires computationally expensive calculations of recurrence plots (RPs) and line length histograms.…

In this paper, we elaborate over the well-known interpretability issue in echo state networks. The idea is to investigate the dynamics of reservoir neurons with time-series analysis techniques taken from research on complex systems.…

We propose two rational expectation models of transient financial bubbles with heterogeneous arbitrageurs and positive feedbacks leading to self-reinforcing transient stochastic faster-than-exponential price dynamics. As a result of the…

We study a rational expectation model of bubbles and crashes. The model has two components : (1) our key assumption is that a crash may be caused by local self-reinforcing imitation between noise traders. If the tendency for noise traders…

The Nasdaq Composite fell another $\approx 10 %$ on Friday the 14'th of April 2000 signaling the end of a remarkable speculative high-tech bubble starting in spring 1997. The closing of the Nasdaq Composite at 3321 corresponds to a total…

We present a self-consistent model for explosive financial bubbles, which combines a mean-reverting volatility process and a stochastic conditional return which reflects nonlinear positive feedbacks and continuous updates of the investors'…

Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) can help to detect significant events and phase transitions of a dynamical system, but choosing a suitable set of parameters is crucial for the success. From recurrence plots different RQA variables…

Recurrence quantification analysis is a widely used method for characterizing patterns in time series. This article presents a comprehensive survey for conducting a wide range of recurrence-based analyses to quantify the dynamical structure…

We investigate the recently introduced variety of a set of stock returns traded in a financial market. This investigation is done by considering daily and intraday time horizons in a 15-day time period centered at the August 31st, 1998…

Recurrence is a fundamental property of dynamical systems, which can be exploited to characterise the system's behaviour in phase space. A powerful tool for their visualisation and analysis called recurrence plot was introduced in the late…

Evidence is offered for log-periodic (in time) fluctuations in the S&P 500 stock index during the three years prior to the October 27, 1997 "correction". These fluctuations were expected on the basis of a discretely scale invariant rupture…

Recurrence plot based time series analysis is widely used to study changes and transitions in the dynamics of a system or temporal deviations from its overall dynamical regime. However, most studies do not discuss the significance of the…

We propose a straightforward extension of our previously proposed log-periodic power law model of the ``anti-bubble'' regime of the USA market since the summer of 2000, in terms of the renormalization group framework to model critical…

We present an analysis of the time behavior of the $S\&P500$ (Standard and Poors) New York stock exchange index before and after the October 1987 market crash and identify precursory patterns as well as aftershock signatures and…