相关论文: Predictability of Volcano Eruption: lessons from a…

This article deals with the behavior in time of the solution to the Cauchy problem for a fractional wave equation with a weighted $L^1$ initial data. Initially, we establish the global existence of the solution using Fourier methods and…

Climate change communication is crucial to raising awareness and motivating action. In the context of breaching the limits set out by the Paris Agreement, we argue that climate scientists should move away from point estimates and towards…

Large earthquakes occurring worldwide have long been recognised to be non Poisson distributed, so involving some large scale correlation mechanism, which could be internal or external to the Earth. Till now, no statistically significant…

Density functional theory calculations can be used to identify dominant reaction mechanisms. However, the dominant reaction mechanism is sensitive to choice of the exchange correlation functional. Here, we demonstrate using the example case…

It is often known, from modelling studies, that a certain mode of climate tipping (of the oceanic thermohaline circulation, for example) is governed by an underlying fold bifurcation. For such a case we present a scheme of analysis that…

Due to severe societal and environmental impacts, wildfire prediction using multi-modal sensing data has become a highly sought-after data-analytical tool by various stakeholders (such as state governments and power utility companies) to…

Explosive volcanic eruptions play a fundamental role in the evolution and observability of rocky exoplanets, serving as a key mechanism for injecting volatiles into planetary atmospheres and potentially modifying their climate and…

A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

A flashover occurs when a fire spreads very rapidly through crevices due to intense heat. Flashovers present one of the most frightening and challenging fire phenomena to those who regularly encounter them: firefighters. Firefighters'…

Explosions near ground generate multiple geophysical waveforms in the radiation-dominated range of their signature fields. Multi-phenomological explosion monitoring (MultiPEM) at these ranges requires the predictive capability to forecast…

Earthquake prediction is one of the most pursued problems in geoscience. Different geological and seismological approaches exist for the prediction of the earthquake and its subsequent land change. However, in many cases, they fail in their…

We propose a physics-aware machine learning method to time-accurately predict extreme events in a turbulent flow. The method combines two radically different approaches: empirical modelling based on reservoir computing, which learns the…

This paper estimates models of high frequency index futures returns using `around the clock' 5-minute returns that incorporate the following key features: multiple persistent stochastic volatility factors, jumps in prices and volatilities,…

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is critical for disaster warning and emergency response. Deep learning methods address computational challenges but often neglect physical relationships between TC attributes, resulting in predictions…

The accurate prediction of precipitation is important to allow for reliable warnings of flood or drought risk in a changing climate. However, to make trust-worthy predictions of precipitation, at a local scale, is one of the most difficult…

Battery energy storage systems can be used for peak demand reduction in power systems, leading to significant economic benefits. Two practical challenges are 1) accurately determining the peak load days and hours and 2) quantifying and…

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are issued by human forecasters who evaluate spatio-temporal observations (e.g., satellite imagery) and model output (e.g., numerical weather prediction, statistical models) to produce forecasts…

Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the…