相关论文: A note on the use of the word 'likelihood' in stat…
This paper is an attempt to bring together two approaches to language analysis. The possible use of probabilistic information in principle-based grammars and parsers is considered, including discussion on some theoretical and computational…
The study of associations and their causal explanations is a central research activity whose methodology varies tremendously across fields. Even within specialized subfields, comparisons across textbooks and journals reveals that the basics…
In this paper, closed-form expressions are presented for the variation of the expectation of a given function due to changes in the probability measure used for the expectation. They unveil interesting connections with Gibbs probability…
Prediction is a complex notion, and different predictors (such as people, computer programs, and probabilistic theories) can pursue very different goals. In this paper I will review some popular kinds of prediction and argue that the theory…
Null hypothesis significance testing remains popular despite decades of concern about misuse and misinterpretation. We believe that much of the problem is due to language: significance testing has little to do with other meanings of the…
When studying convergence of measures, an important issue is the choice of probability metric. In this review, we provide a summary and some new results concerning bounds among ten important probability metrics/distances that are used by…
Majorisation, also called rearrangement inequalities, yields a type of stochastic ordering in which two or more distributions can be compared. In this paper we argue that majorisation is a good candidate as a theory for uncertainty. We…
Probability forecasts are intended to account for the uncertainties inherent in forecasting. It is suggested that from an end-user's point of view probability is not necessarily sufficient to reflect uncertainties that are not simply the…
The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however,…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields including meteorology, hydrology, economics, and demography. In typical applications, many alternative statistical…
This text presents an unified approach of probability and statistics in the pursuit of understanding and computation of randomness in engineering or physical or social system with prediction with generalizability. Starting from elementary…
Many of you reading these words will have been attracted by the discussion paper [McShane and Wyner (2011)], in which case, this may be the first, but hopefully not the last, time you will have read anything in a statistics journal. I would…
We develop a likelihood methodology which can be used to search for evidence of burst repetition in the BATSE catalog, and to study the properties of the repetition signal. We use a simplified model of burst repetition in which a number…
The Improbability Scale (IS) is proposed as a way of communicating to the general public the improbability (and by implication, the probability) of events predicted as the result of scientific research. Through the use of the Improbability…
We define outliers as a set of observations which contradicts the proposed mathematical (statistical) model and we discuss the frequently observed types of the outliers. Further we explore what changes in the model have to be made in order…
Unbinned likelihood fits are frequent in Physics, and often involve complex functions with several components. We discuss the potential pitfalls of situations where the templates used in the fit are not fixed but depend on the event…
The apparent failure of individual probabilistic expressions to distinguish uncertainty about truths from uncertainty about probabilistic assessments have prompted researchers to seek formalisms where the two types of uncertainties are…
The Brier score is frequently used by meteorologists to measure the skill of binary probabilistic forecasts. We show, however, that in simple idealised cases it gives counterintuitive results. We advocate the use of an alternative measure…
The language of probability is used to define several different types of conditional statements. There are four principal types: subjunctive, material, existential, and feasibility. Two further types of conditionals are defined using the…
Three statistical studies, all published between 2004 and 2008 but without referring to one another, assert a useful equivalence involving the hazard ratio, a parameter estimated for time to event data by the frequently used proportional…