相关论文: On the possibility for short time when, where eart…

We propose a new method to test the effectiveness of a spatial point process forecast based on a log-likelihood score for predicted point density and the information gain for events that actually occurred in the test period. The method…

Seismic risk estimates will be vastly improved with an increased understanding of historical (and pre-historical) seismic events. However the only existing data for these events is anecdotal and sparse. To address this we developed a…

Recent satellite and ground-based observations proved that in earthquake preparation period in the seismogenic area we have VLF/LF and ULF electromagnetic emissions. According to the opinion of the authors of the present paper this…

We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…

We examine the applicability of modern neural network architectures to the midterm prediction of earthquakes. Our data-based classification model aims to predict if an earthquake with the magnitude above a threshold takes place at a given…

Local ionospheric density anomalies have been reported in the days prior to major earthquakes. This global study statistically investigates whether consistent ionospheric anomalies occur in the 24 hours prior to earthquakes across different…

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Gravitational wave observatories have always been affected by tele-seismic earthquakes leading to a decrease in duty cycle and coincident observation time. In this analysis, we leverage the power of machine learning algorithms and archival…

Earthquake occurrence is notoriously difficult to predict. While some aspects of their spatiotemporal statistics can be relatively well captured by point-process models, very little is known regarding the magnitude of future events, and it…

Modern optical atomic clocks along with the optical fiber technology currently being developed can measure the geoid, which is the equipotential surface that extends the mean sea level on continents, to a precision that competes with…

Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…

It had been observed by Linkov, Petrova and Osipov (1992) that there exist periodic 4-6 hours pulses of 200 microHz seismogravitational oscillations ( SGO ) before 95 % of powerful earthquakes. We explain this by beating between an…

Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…

Based on the geodynamics, an earthquake does not take place until the momentum-energy excess a faulting threshold value of rock due to the movement of the fluid layer under the rock layer and the transport and accumulation of the momentum.…

Physical Wavelets observe the large earthquake genesis processes of several months in a regional seismic catalog, suggesting the predictability of location, fault movement and size, and rupture time with an accuracy of up to a day and up to…

We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and…

Two novel methods, one that is experimental and the other comprising a pair of theoretical types (one component that is mathematically rigorous and the other that is of frequency domain computational type), are being used in concert to…

We propose a simple theory for the ``universal'' scaling law previously reported for the distributions of waiting times between earthquakes. It is based on a largely used benchmark model of seismicity, which just assumes no difference in…

Earthquake prediction is one of the most pursued problems in geoscience. Different geological and seismological approaches exist for the prediction of the earthquake and its subsequent land change. However, in many cases, they fail in their…