相关论文: On Statistical Methods of Parameter Estimation for…

We present an alternating least squares type numerical optimization scheme to estimate conditionally-independent mixture models in $\mathbb{R}^n$, without parameterizing the distributions. Following the method of moments, we tackle an…

Standard maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches to parameter estimation for stochastic differential equations are not robust to perturbations in the continuous-in-time data. In this paper, we give a rather elementary explanation of this…

In the classic measurement error framework, covariates are contaminated by independent additive noise. This paper considers parameter estimation in such a linear errors-in-variables model where the unknown measurement error distribution is…

Nonlinear optimisation techniques are commonly employed to minimise complex cost functions, with their effectiveness determined largely by the structure of the underlying error landscape. These methods require initial parameter values, and…

The Method of Moments [Pea94] is one of the most widely used methods in statistics for parameter estimation, by means of solving the system of equations that match the population and estimated moments. However, in practice and especially…

We propose a mechanism which produces periodic variations of the degree of predictability in dynamical systems. It is shown that even in the absence of noise when the control parameter changes periodically in time, below and above the…

We present a consistent method to calculate the probability distribution of soliton parameters in systems with additive noise. Even though a weak noise is considered, we are interested in probabilities of large fluctuations (generally…

We study the problem of system identification for stochastic continuous-time dynamics, based on a single finite-length state trajectory. We present a method for estimating the possibly unstable open-loop matrix by employing properly…

In this paper is proposed a novel incremental iterative Gauss-Newton-Markov-Kalman filter method for state estimation of dynamic models given noisy measurements. The mathematical formulation of the proposed filter is based on the…

Probabilistic approach to Boolean matrix factorization can provide solutions robustagainst noise and missing values with linear computational complexity. However,the assumption about latent factors can be problematic in real world…

Dynamical models of cognition play an increasingly important role in driving theoretical and experimental research in psychology. Therefore, parameter estimation, model analysis and comparison of dynamical models are of essential…

Causal models are important tools to understand complex phenomena and predict the outcome of controlled experiments, also known as interventions. In this work, we present statistical rates of estimation for linear cyclic causal models under…

This paper details how to parameterize the posterior distribution of state-space systems to generate improved optimization problems for system identification using variational inference. Three different parameterizations of the assumed…

Stochastic models such as Continuous-Time Markov Chains (CTMC) and Stochastic Hybrid Automata (SHA) are powerful formalisms to model and to reason about the dynamics of biological systems, due to their ability to capture the stochasticity…

Oftentimes in practice, the observed process changes statistical properties at an unknown point in time and the duration of a change is substantially finite, in which case one says that the change is intermittent or transient. We provide an…

Berliner (Likelihood and Bayesian prediction for chaotic systems, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1991) identified a number of difficulties in using the likelihood function within the Bayesian paradigm which arise both for state estimation and for…

The inherent complexity of biological agents often leads to motility behavior that appears to have random components. Robust stochastic inference methods are therefore required to understand and predict the motion patterns from time…

Observability can determine which recorded variables of a given system are optimal for discriminating its different states. Quantifying observability requires knowledge of the equations governing the dynamics. These equations are often…

In this paper a new concept, namely the critical predictable time $T_c$, is introduced to give a more precise description of computed chaotic solutions of nonlinear differential equations: it is suggested that computed chaotic solutions are…

Timesteppers constitute a powerful tool in modern computational science and engineering. Although they are typically used to advance the system forward in time, they can also be viewed as nonlinear mappings that implicitly encode steady…