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Given a knowledge base KB containing first-order and statistical facts, we consider a principled method, called the random-worlds method, for computing a degree of belief that some formula Phi holds given KB. If we are reasoning about a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2009-09-25 A. J. Grove , J. Y. Halpern , D. Koller

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-04-03 George Papamakarios , Iain Murray

An efficient approach to the calculation of the $\epsilon$-entropy is proposed. The method is based on the idea of looking at the information content of a string of data, by analyzing the signal only at the instants when the fluctuations…

chao-dyn · 物理学 2009-10-31 M. Abel , L. Biferale , M. Cencini , M. Falcioni , D. Vergni , A. Vulpiani

Safe and reliable disclosure of information from confidential data is a challenging statistical problem. A common approach considers the generation of synthetic data, to be disclosed instead of the original data. Efficient approaches ought…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-04 Larissa N. A. Martins , Flávio B. Gonçalves , Thais P. Galletti

R\'esum\'e: Le principal objet de cette communication est de faire une r\'etro perspective succincte de l'utilisation de l'entropie et du principe du maximum d'entropie dans le domaine du traitement du signal. Apr\`es un bref rappel de…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari

Reinforcement learning can learn amortised design policies for designing sequences of experiments. However, current amortised methods rely on estimators of expected information gain (EIG) that require an exponential number of samples on the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-06 Tom Blau , Iadine Chades , Amir Dezfouli , Daniel Steinberg , Edwin V. Bonilla

When prior information is lacking, the go-to strategy for probabilistic inference is to combine a "default prior" and the likelihood via Bayes's theorem. Objective Bayes, (generalized) fiducial inference, etc. fall under this umbrella. This…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-05 Ryan Martin

The method of maximum entropy is quite a powerful tool to solve the generalized moment problem, which consists of determining the probability density of a random variable X from the knowledge of the expected values of a few functions of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-10-15 Henryk Gzyl

The measurement of the efficiency of an event selection is always an important part of the analysis of experimental data. The statistical techniques which are needed to determine the efficiency and its uncertainty are reviewed. Frequentist…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2012-08-28 Diego Casadei

We introduce a method for embedding words as probability densities in a low-dimensional space. Rather than assuming that a word embedding is fixed across the entire text collection, as in standard word embedding methods, in our Bayesian…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2018-06-12 Arthur Bražinskas , Serhii Havrylov , Ivan Titov

Model Updating is frequently used in Structural Health Monitoring to determine structures' operating conditions and whether maintenance is required. Data collected by sensors are used to update the values of some initially unknown…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-01-23 Felipe Igea , Alice Cicirello

The entropy maximum approach (Maxent) was developed as a minimization of the subjective uncertainty measured by the Boltzmann--Gibbs--Shannon entropy. Many new entropies have been invented in the second half of the 20th century. Now there…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2013-11-07 A. N. Gorban

It is shown that if the Euclidean path integral measure of a minimally coupled free quantum scalar field on a classical metric background is interpreted as probability of observing the field configuration given the background metric then…

量子物理 · 物理学 2021-02-22 Can Gokler

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2016-09-01 G. D'Agostini

The maximum entropy principle (MEP) is one of the most prominent methods to investigate and model complex systems. Despite its popularity, the standard form of the MEP can only generate Boltzmann-Gibbs distributions, which are ill-suited…

统计力学 · 物理学 2022-03-30 Pablo A. Morales , Fernando E. Rosas

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for estimating parameters of statistical models. However, EM, which is an iterative algorithm based on the maximum likelihood principle, is generally only guaranteed to find…

统计理论 · 数学 2016-08-30 Ji Xu , Daniel Hsu , Arian Maleki

Bayesian inference gets its name from *Bayes's theorem*, expressing posterior probabilities for hypotheses about a data generating process as the (normalized) product of prior probabilities and a likelihood function. But Bayesian inference…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-02 Thomas J. Loredo , Robert L. Wolpert

Econophysics, is based on the premise that some ideas and methods from physics can be applied to economic situations. We intend to show in this paper how a physics concept such as entropy can be applied to an economic problem. In so doing,…

统计金融 · 定量金融 2016-09-08 Adom Giffin

A central challenge in statistical inference is the presence of confounding variables that may distort observed associations between treatment and outcome. Conventional "causal" methods, grounded in assumptions such as ignorability, exclude…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-09 Ellis Scharfenaker , Duncan K. Foley

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2023-09-01 Alan H. Guth , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo
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