相关论文: Comment on "Including Systematic Uncertainties in …
One way to incorporate systematic uncertainties into the calculation of confidence intervals is by integrating over probability density functions parametrizing the uncertainties. In this note we present a development of this method which…
In this note we consider coverage of confidence intervals calculated with and without systematic uncertainties. These calculations follow the prescription originally proposed by Cousins & Highland but here extended to account for different…
In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties.…
In this note we present studies of coverage and power for confidence intervals for a Poisson process with known background calculated using the Likelihood ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) ordering with Bayesian treatment of uncertainties in…
The incorporation of uncertainties to calculations of signal significance in planned experiments is an actual task. Several approaches to this problem are discussed. We present a procedure for taking into account the systematic uncertainty…
We present a procedure for calculating an upper limit on the number of signal events which incorporates the Poisson uncertainty in the background, estimated from control regions of one or two dimensions. For small number of signal events,…
When searching for new physics effects, collaborations will often wish to publish upper limits and intervals with a lower confidence level than the threshold they would set to claim an excess or a discovery. However, confidence intervals…
We construct uncertainty intervals for weak Poisson signals in the presence of background. We consider the case where a primary experiment yields a realization of the signal plus background, and a second experiment yields a realization of…
We address the common problem of calculating intervals in the presence of systematic uncertainties. We aim to investigate several approaches, but here describe just a Bayesian technique for setting upper limits. The particular example we…
Confidence intervals for a binomial parameter or for the ratio of Poisson means are commonly desired in high energy physics (HEP) applications such as measuring a detection efficiency or branching ratio. Due to the discreteness of the data,…
The evaluation of the error to be attributed to cut efficiencies is a common question in the practice of experimental particle physics. Specifically, the need to evaluate the efficiency of the cuts for background removal, when they are…
We review the methods of constructing confidence intervals that account for a priori information about one-sided constraints on the parameter being estimated. We show that the so-called method of sensitivity limit yields a correct solution…
We have investigated how uncertainties in the estimation of the detection efficiency affect the 90% confidence intervals in the unified approach for constructing confidence intervals. The study has been conducted for experiments where the…
Results of numerical procedure of constructing confidence intervals for parameter of the Poisson distribution of signal events in the presence of background events with known value of parameter of Poisson distribution are presented. It is…
The measurements with the background estimation from an off-zone are widely used in astrophysics, accelerator physics and other areas. Usually, the expected number of the background events in the off-zone and in the on-zone is known with a…
The construction of the Bayesian credible (confidence) interval for a Poisson observable including both the signal and background with and without systematic uncertainties is presented. Introducing the conditional probability satisfying the…
We propose a construction of frequentist confidence intervals that is effective near unphysical regions and unifies the treatment of two-sided and upper limit intervals. It is rigorous, has coverage, is computationally simple and avoids the…
Starting from considerations about meaning and subsequent use of asymmetric uncertainty intervals of experimental results, we review the issue of uncertainty propagation. We show that, using a probabilistic approach (the so-called Bayesian…
A results of numerical procedure for construction of confidence intervals for parameter of Poisson distribution for signal in the presence of background which has Poisson distribution with known value of parameter are presented. It is shown…
Expected coverage and expected length of 90% upper and lower limit and 68.27% central intervals are plotted as functions of the true signal for various values of expected background. Results for several objective priors are shown, and…