相关论文: Yet Another Analysis of Dice Problems

We demonstrate how information in the form of observable data and moment constraints are introduced into the method of Maximum relative Entropy (ME). A general example of updating with data and moments is shown. A specific econometric…

Entropy and relative or cross entropy measures are two very fundamental concepts in information theory and are also widely used for statistical inference across disciplines. The related optimization problems, in particular the maximization…

We develop the theory and practice of an approach to modelling and probabilistic inference in causal networks that is suitable when application-specific or analysis-specific constraints should inform such inference or when little or no data…

QCD sum rules are analyzed with the help of the Maximum Entropy Method. We develop a new technique based on the Bayesion inference theory, which allows us to directly obtain the spectral function of a given correlator from the results of…

We derive, in the classical framework of Bayesian sensitivity analysis, optimal lower and upper bounds on posterior values obtained from Bayesian models that exactly capture an arbitrarily large number of finite-dimensional marginals of the…

While Robert and Rousseau (2010) addressed the foundational aspects of Bayesian analysis, the current chapter details its practical aspects through a review of the computational methods available for approximating Bayesian procedures.…

We consider the problem of estimating the probability of error in multi-hypothesis testing when MAP criterion is used. This probability, which is also known as the Bayes risk is an important measure in many communication and information…

A popular perspective in Reinforcement learning (RL) casts the problem as probabilistic inference on a graphical model of the Markov decision process (MDP). The core object of study is the probability of each state-action pair being visited…

What if there is a teacher who knows the learning goal and wants to design good training data for a machine learner? We propose an optimal teaching framework aimed at learners who employ Bayesian models. Our framework is expressed as an…

The 21st century has seen an enormous growth in the development and use of approximate Bayesian methods. Such methods produce computational solutions to certain intractable statistical problems that challenge exact methods like Markov chain…

Statistical inference for extreme values of random events is difficult in practice due to low sample sizes and inaccurate models for the studied rare events. If prior knowledge for extreme values is available, Bayesian statistics can be…

This paper studies the notion of computational entropy. Using techniques from convex optimization, we investigate the following problems: (a) Can we derandomize the computational entropy? More precisely, for the computational entropy, what…

The exponential growth of scientific knowledge has made the automated generation of scientific hypotheses that combine novelty, feasibility, and research value a core challenge. Existing methods based on large language models fail to…

Composite likelihoods are increasingly used in applications where the full likelihood is analytically unknown or computationally prohibitive. Although the maximum composite likelihood estimator has frequentist properties akin to those of…

For the purpose of causal inference we employ a stochastic model of the data generating process, utilizing individual propensity probabilities for the treatment, and also individual and counterfactual prognosis probabilities for the…

Given a sequence composed of a limit number of characters, we try to "read" it as a "text". This involves to segment the sequence into "words". The difficulty is to distinguish good segmentation from enormous number of random ones.Aiming at…

Gaussian random processes which variances reach theirs maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximums of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using Double Sum Method…

Entropy Estimation is an important problem with many applications in cryptography, statistic,machine learning. Although the estimators optimal with respect to the sample complexity have beenrecently developed, there are still some…

This work presents PESMOC, Predictive Entropy Search for Multi-objective Bayesian Optimization with Constraints, an information-based strategy for the simultaneous optimization of multiple expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions under the…

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…