相关论文: Outliers, Extreme Events and Multiscaling

The fluctuation scaling law has universally been observed in a wide variety of phenomena. For counting processes describing the number of events occurred during time intervals, it is expressed as a power function relationship between the…

The thresholding of time series of activity or intensity is frequently used to define and differentiate events. This is either implicit, for example due to resolution limits, or explicit, in order to filter certain small scale physics from…

Shell model turbulence is a simplified mathematical framework that captures essential features of incompressible fluid turbulence such as the energy cascade, intermittency and anomalous scaling of the fluid observables. We perform a…

A possibility to give strong mathematical definitions of outliers and heavy tailed distributions or their modification is discussed. Some alternatives for the notion of tail index are proposed. Key words: outliers, heavy tails, tail index.

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Models for extreme values accommodating non-stationarity have been amply studied and evaluated from a parametric perspective. Whilst these models are flexible, in the sense that many parametrizations can be explored, they assume an…

Random walk on discrete lattice models is important to understand various types of transport processes. The extreme events, defined as exceedences of the flux of walkers above a prescribed threshold, have been studied recently in the…

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, posing serious threats to human life, biodiversity, and ecosystems. A key objective of extreme event attribution (EEA) is to assess whether and to what extent anthropogenic…

Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…

In this chapter, we illustrate the use of split bulk-tail models and subasymptotic models motivated by extreme-value theory in the context of hazard assessment for earthquake-induced landslides. A spatial joint areal model is presented for…

The extreme event statistics plays a very important role in the theory and practice of time series analysis. The reassembly of classical theoretical results is often undermined by non-stationarity and dependence between increments.…

We study rare events in the extreme value statistics of stochastic symmetric jump processes with power tails in the distributions of the jumps, using the big-jump principle. The principle states that in the presence of stochastic processes…

Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…

Extreme event attribution characterizes how anthropogenic climate change may have influenced the probability and magnitude of selected individual extreme weather and climate events. Attribution statements often involve quantification of the…

Linear regression is ubiquitous in statistical analysis. It is well understood that conflicting sources of information may contaminate the inference when the classical normality of errors is assumed. The contamination caused by the light…

Spatial modelling of extreme values allows studying the risk of joint occurrence of extreme events at different locations and is of significant interest in climatic and other environmental sciences. A popular class of dependence models for…

A class of models is introduced describing the evolution of population species whose carrying capacities are functionals of these populations. The functional dependence of the carrying capacities reflects the fact that the correlations…

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

We introduce a trimmed version of the Hill estimator for the index of a heavy-tailed distribution, which is robust to perturbations in the extreme order statistics. In the ideal Pareto setting, the estimator is essentially finite-sample…

Linear regression with the classical normality assumption for the error distribution may lead to an undesirable posterior inference of regression coefficients due to the potential outliers. This paper considers the finite mixture of two…