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Suppose that a compound Poisson process is observed discretely in time and assume that its jump distribution is supported on the set of natural numbers. In this paper we propose a non-parametric Bayesian approach to estimate the intensity…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-05-21 Shota Gugushvili , Ester Mariucci , Frank van der Meulen

Bayesian statistical models allow us to formalise our knowledge about the world and reason about our uncertainty, but there is a need for better procedures to accurately encode its complexity. One way to do so is through compositional…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-03-01 Maria Lomeli

The Pitman-Yor process is a random discrete probability distribution of which the atoms can be used to model the relative abundance of species. The process is indexed by a type parameter $\sigma$, which controls the number of different…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-08-31 S. E. M. P. Franssen , A. W. van der Vaart

A family of random probabilities is defined and studied. This family contains the Dirichlet process as a special case, corresponding to an inner point in the appropriate parameter space. The extension makes it possible to have random means…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-21 Nils Lid Hjort

The purpose of this paper is to provide a discussion, with illustrating examples, on Bayesian forecasting for dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs). Adopting approximate Bayesian analysis, based on conjugate forms and on Bayes linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2008-02-05 K. Triantafyllopoulos

Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-09-27 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

This paper presents a unified treatment of Gaussian process models that extends to data from the exponential dispersion family and to survival data. Our specific interest is in the analysis of data sets with predictors that have an a priori…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2011-06-17 Terrance Savitsky , Marina Vannucci , Naijun Sha

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric extension of the popular Plackett-Luce choice model that can handle an infinite number of choice items. Our framework is based on the theory of random atomic measures, with the prior specified by a gamma…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-11-20 Francois Caron , Yee Whye Teh

Gibbs-type priors are widely used as key components in several Bayesian nonparametric models. By virtue of their flexibility and mathematical tractability, they turn out to be predominant priors in species sampling problems, clustering and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-30 Federico Camerlenghi , Riccardo Corradin , Andrea Ongaro

I present all the details in calculating the posterior distribution of the conjugate Normal-Gamma prior in Bayesian Linear Models (BLM), including correlated observations, prediction, model selection and comments on efficient numeric…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-04 J Andres Christen

We develop dependent hierarchical normalized random measures and apply them to dynamic topic modeling. The dependency arises via superposition, subsampling and point transition on the underlying Poisson processes of these measures. The…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2012-06-22 Changyou Chen , Nan Ding , Wray Buntine

The results in this paper provide new information on asymptotic properties of classical models: the neutral Kingman coalescent under a general finite-alleles, parent-dependent mutation mechanism, and its generalisation, the ancestral…

概率论 · 数学 2022-07-08 Martina Favero , Henrik Hult

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation and prediction for nonhomogeneous Poisson process models with unknown intensity functions. We propose a class of improper priors for intensity functions. Nonparametric Bayesian inference with…

统计理论 · 数学 2021-08-17 Fumiyasu Komaki

We consider heteroscedastic nonparametric regression models, when both the mean function and variance function are unknown and to be estimated with nonparametric approaches. We derive convergence rates of posterior distributions for this…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-10-07 Yuao Hu

Dependent nonparametric processes extend distributions over measures, such as the Dirichlet process and the beta process, to give distributions over collections of measures, typically indexed by values in some covariate space. Such models…

机器学习 · 统计学 2012-11-21 Nicholas J. Foti , Sinead Williamson

We present an alternative approach to the Bayesian nonparametric analysis of conditional species richness under two-parameter Poisson Dirichlet priors. We rely on a known characterization by deletion of classes property and on results for…

概率论 · 数学 2010-02-03 Annalisa Cerquetti

Given a sample of size $n$ from a population of individuals belonging to different species with unknown proportions, a popular problem of practical interest consists in making inference on the probability $D_{n}(l)$ that the $(n+1)$-th draw…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-18 Julyan Arbel , Stefano Favaro , Bernardo Nipoti , Yee Whye Teh

The study of properties of mean functionals of random probability measures is an important area of research in the theory of Bayesian nonparametric statistics. Many results are now known for random Dirichlet means, but little is known,…

统计理论 · 数学 2010-02-24 Lancelot F. James , Antonio Lijoi , Igor Prünster