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Proper quantification of predictive uncertainty is essential for the use of machine learning in safety-critical applications. Various uncertainty measures have been proposed for this purpose, typically claiming superiority over other…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-12-16 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

We characterize those ex-ante restrictions on the random utility model which lead to identification. We first identify a simple class of perturbations which transfer mass from a suitable pair of preferences to the pair formed by swapping…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2024-08-14 Peter P. Caradonna , Christopher Turansick

This work introduces a family of univariate constrained mixtures of generalized normal distributions (CMGND) where the location, scale, and shape parameters can be constrained to be equal across any subset of mixture components. An…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-05 Pierdomenico Duttilo , Stefano Antonio Gattone , Alfred Kume

Predictive inference requires balancing statistical accuracy against informational complexity, yet the choice of complexity measure is usually imposed rather than derived. We treat econometric objects as predictive rules, mappings from…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-02-16 Nicholas G. Polson , Daniel Zantedeschi

Suppose (standardized) measurements or statistics are monitored to raise an alarm when a threshold is exceeded. Often, the underlying population is heterogenous with respect to important discrete variables and thus samples may consist of…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-10-10 Ansgar Steland

We address the problem of producing a lower bound for the mean of a discrete probability distribution, with known support over a finite set of real numbers, from an iid sample of that distribution. Up to a constant, this is equivalent to…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-02-25 Erik Learned-Miller

One of the major challenges for collective intelligence is inconsistency, which is unavoidable whenever subjective assessments are involved. Pairwise comparisons allow one to represent such subjective assessments and to process them by…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2015-08-06 J. Fueloep , W. W. Koczkodaj , S. J. Szarek

In this study, we provide mathematical and practice-driven justification for using $[0,1]$ normalization of inconsistency indicators in pairwise comparisons. The need for normalization, as well as problems with the lack of normalization,…

离散数学 · 计算机科学 2017-02-28 W. W. Koczkodaj , J. -P. Magnot , J. Mazurek , J. F. Peters , H. Rakhshani , M. Soltys , D. Strzałka , J. Szybowski , A. Tozzi

In problems involving the allocation of a single non-disposable commodity, we study rules defined on a general domain of preferences requiring only that each preference exhibit a unique global maximum. Our focus is on rules that satisfy a…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-18 R. Pablo Arribillaga , Agustin G. Bonifacio

Traditional Item Response Theory models assume the distribution of the abilities of the population in study to be Gaussian. However, this may not always be a reasonable assumption, which motivates the development of more general models.…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-12-20 Flávio B. Gonçalves , Bárbara C. C. Dias , Tufi M. Soares

We derive theorems which outline explicit mechanisms by which anomalous scaling for the probability density function of the sum of many correlated random variables asymptotically prevails. The results characterize general anomalous scaling…

统计力学 · 物理学 2015-05-14 Attilio L. Stella , Fulvio Baldovin

Within an industrial manufacturing process, tolerancing is a key player. The dimensions uncertainties management starts during the design phase, with an assessment on variability of parts not yet produced. For one assembly step, we can gain…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-12-20 Ambre Diet , Nicolas Couellan , Xavier Gendre , Julien Martin

Foundation models are trained on broad data distributions, yielding generalist capabilities that enable many downstream applications but also expand the space of potential misuse and failures. This position paper argues that capability…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-06 Shoaib Ahmed Siddiqui , Eleni Triantafillou , David Krueger , Adrian Weller

We axiomatically define a cardinal social inefficiency function, which, given a set of alternatives and individuals' vNM preferences over the alternatives, assigns a unique number -- the social inefficiency -- to each alternative. These…

理论经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-10 Yannai A. Gonczarowski , Ella Segev

Observed clusters should be modelled by considering the distribution function to be a random variable that quantifies the degree of excitation of the system's normal modes. A system of canonical coordinates for the space of DFs is…

星系天体物理 · 物理学 2021-08-11 Jun Yan Lau , James Binney

This study presents an abelian group approach to analyzing inconsistency in pairwise comparisons. However, it wrongly assumes that an inconsistency indicator can take values in any abelian linearly ordered group. The followup publication…

离散数学 · 计算机科学 2017-12-27 W. W. Koczkodaj , J. Szybowski , E. Wajch

Detection limits (DLs), where a variable is unable to be measured outside of a certain range, are common in research. Most approaches to handle DLs in the response variable implicitly make parametric assumptions on the distribution of data…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-07 Yuqi Tian , Chun Li , Shengxin Tu , Nathan T. James , Frank E. Harrell , Bryan E. Shepherd

Thanks to its favorable properties, the multivariate normal distribution is still largely employed for modeling phenomena in various scientific fields. However, when the number of components $p$ is of the same asymptotic order as the sample…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-11-17 Caizhu Huang , Claudia Di Caterina , Nicola Sartori

Within the machine learning community, the widely-used uniform convergence framework has been used to answer the question of how complex, over-parameterized models can generalize well to new data. This approach bounds the test error of the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-03-05 Ryan Theisen , Jason M. Klusowski , Michael W. Mahoney

An effective medium approach similar to the coherent potential approximation (CPA) in the theory of disordered alloys and to the DMFT has been extended to the renormalization group equations in the local potential approximation (LPA).…

统计力学 · 物理学 2019-10-14 V. I. Tokar