相关论文: Long term object drift in the ocean with tide and …

Drift theory is an intuitive tool for reasoning about random processes: It allows turning expected stepwise changes into expected first-hitting times. While drift theory is used extensively by the community studying randomized search…

In this work we propose a new approach for the numerical simulation of kinetic equations through Monte Carlo schemes. We introduce a new technique which permits to reduce the variance of particle methods through a matching with a set of…

Although the theoretical behavior of one-dimensional random walks in random environments is well understood, the numerical evaluation of various characteristics of such processes has received relatively little attention. This paper develops…

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

When learning from streaming data, a change in the data distribution, also known as concept drift, can render a previously-learned model inaccurate and require training a new model. We present an adaptive learning algorithm that extends…

In this paper a Monte-Carlo method for simulating the motion of fluid flow moving along a solid wall is proposed. The random vortex method in the present paper is established by using the reflection technology and perturbation technique.…

Spotting refers to the transport of burning pieces of firebrand by wind which, at the time of landing, may ignite new fires beyond the direct ignition zone of the main fire. Spot fires that occur far from the original burn unit are rare but…

We propose to construct a temporary wave on the surface of the ocean, as a particular solution of the Saint-Venant equations with a source term involving the friction, whose shape is expected to mimic a rogue wave.

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Search and detection of objects on the ocean surface is a challenging task due to the complexity of the drift dynamics and lack of known optimal solutions for the path of the search agents. This challenge was highlighted by the unsuccessful…

Trading volume movement prediction is the key in a variety of financial applications. Despite its importance, there is few research on this topic because of its requirement for comprehensive understanding of information from different…

Underwater glider robots have become indispensable for ocean sampling, yet fully autonomous long-term operation remains rare in practice. Although stakeholders are calling for tools to manage increasingly large fleets of gliders, existing…

It is often of interest to perform clustering on longitudinal data, yet it is difficult to formulate an intuitive model for which estimation is computationally feasible. We propose a model-based clustering method for clustering objects that…

We introduce a Monte Carlo algorithm to efficiently compute transport properties of chaotic dynamical systems. Our method exploits the importance sampling technique that favors trajectories in the tail of the distribution of displacements,…

This paper presents a method for probabilistic wind power forecasting that quantifies and integrates uncertainties from weather forecasts and weather-to-power conversion. By addressing both uncertainty sources, the method achieves…

In this paper the application of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method on numerical simulations of turbulent flows with uncertain parameters is investigated. Several strategies for setting up the MLMC method are presented, and the…

Extreme events, such as wave-storms, need to be characterized for coastal infrastructure design purposes. Such description should contain information on both the univariate behaviour and the joint-dependence of storm-variables. These two…

This paper presents and investigates a novel methodology for validating high-resolution ocean models using satellite imagery. High-resolution ocean models provide detailed information in coastal areas where other available data products are…

Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…