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The pseudo-marginal algorithm is a variant of the Metropolis--Hastings algorithm which samples asymptotically from a probability distribution when it is only possible to estimate unbiasedly an unnormalized version of its density.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-12-04 Sebastian M. Schmon , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Michael K. Pitt

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have a drawback when working with a target distribution or likelihood function that is computationally expensive to evaluate, specially when working with big data. This paper focuses on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-22 Asif J. Chowdhury , Gabriel Terejanu

Exact approximations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a general emerging class of sampling algorithms. One of the main ideas behind exact approximations consists of replacing intractable quantities required to run standard…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-10-30 Christophe Andrieu , Matti Vihola

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a widely used sampler for continuous probability distributions. In many cases, the underlying Hamiltonian dynamics exhibit a phenomenon of resonance which decreases the efficiency of the algorithm and makes…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-02-23 Lionel Riou-Durand , Pavel Sountsov , Jure Vogrinc , Charles C. Margossian , Sam Power

The Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC), especially the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm, is a widely used technique for sampling from a target probability distribution $P$ on a state space $\Omega$ and applied to various problems such…

量子物理 · 物理学 2023-03-13 Koichi Miyamoto

When an unbiased estimator of the likelihood is used within a Metropolis--Hastings chain, it is necessary to trade off the number of Monte Carlo samples used to construct this estimator against the asymptotic variances of averages computed…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-09-16 Arnaud Doucet , Michael Pitt , George Deligiannidis , Robert Kohn

Poisson log-linear models are ubiquitous in many applications, and one of the most popular approaches for parametric count regression. In the Bayesian context, however, there are no sufficient specific computational tools for efficient…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-09-02 Laura D'Angelo , Antonio Canale

In this paper we study the Metropolis algorithm in connection with two mean--field spin systems, the so called mean--field Ising model and the Blume--Emery--Griffiths model. In both this examples the naive choice of proposal chain gives…

概率论 · 数学 2007-05-23 Bassetti Federico , Leisen Fabrizio

Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2024-10-31 Maximilian Philipp Herzog , Heinrich von Campe , Rebecca Maria Kuntz , Lennart Röver , Björn Malte Schäfer

In many hierarchical inverse problems, not only do we want to estimate high- or infinite-dimensional model parameters in the parameter-to-observable maps, but we also have to estimate hyperparameters that represent critical assumptions in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-02-18 Johnathan Bardsley , Tiangang Cui

Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2019-01-18 Takaaki Koike , Mihoko Minami

We examine the behaviour of the pseudo-marginal random walk Metropolis algorithm, where evaluations of the target density for the accept/reject probability are estimated rather than computed precisely. Under relatively general conditions on…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-12-31 Chris Sherlock , Alexandre H. Thiery , Gareth O. Roberts , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

It has been widely documented that the sampling and resampling steps in particle filters cannot be differentiated. The {\itshape reparameterisation trick} was introduced to allow the sampling step to be reformulated into a differentiable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-08-10 Conor Rosato , Vincent Beraud , Paul Horridge , Thomas B. Schön , Simon Maskell

When conducting Bayesian inference, delayed acceptance (DA) Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithms and DA pseudo-marginal MH algorithms can be applied when it is computationally expensive to calculate the true posterior or an unbiased estimate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-06-02 Chris Sherlock , Andrew Golightly , Daniel A. Henderson

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-10-03 Johan Alenlöv , Arnaud Doucet , Fredrik Lindsten

Bayesian inference via standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is too computationally intensive to handle large datasets, since the cost per step usually scales like $\Theta(n)$ in the number of data points $n$. We propose the…

Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-05-10 David Gunawan , Pratiti Chatterjee , Robert Kohn

We introduce the method of stochastic lists to deal with a multi-variable positive function, defined by a self-consistent equation, typical for certain problems in physics and mathematics. In this approach, the function's properties are…

统计力学 · 物理学 2018-08-08 Lode Pollet , Nikolay V. Prokof'ev , Boris V. Svistunov

This paper discusses the challenges presented by tall data problems associated with Bayesian classification (specifically binary classification) and the existing methods to handle them. Current methods include parallelizing the likelihood,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-03-22 Richard D. Payne , Bani K. Mallick

We show that addition of Metropolis single spin-flips to the Wolff cluster flipping Monte Carlo procedure leads to a dramatic {\bf increase} in performance for the spin-1/2 Ising model. We also show that adding Wolff cluster flipping to the…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-07 J. A. Plascak , Alan M. Ferrenberg , D. P. Landau