相关论文: Computing Bayesian predictive distributions: The K…

This paper reviews the basic ideas behind a Bayesian unfolding published some years ago and improves their implementation. In particular, uncertainties are now treated at all levels by probability density functions and their propagation is…

Linear mixed-effects models are a central analytical tool for modeling hierarchical and longitudinal data, as they allow simultaneous representation of fixed and random sources of variation. In practice, inference for such models is most…

The problem is that of sequential probability forecasting for finite-valued time series. The data is generated by an unknown probability distribution over the space of all one-way infinite sequences. It is known that this measure belongs to…

This paper proposes new linear regression models to deal with overdispersed binomial datasets. These new models, called tilted beta binomial regression models, are defined from the tilted beta binomial distribution, proposed assuming that…

The Bayesian inversion method demonstrates significant potential for solving inverse problems, enabling both point estimation and uncertainty quantification (UQ). However, Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation may become unstable…

Due to their intuitive appeal, Bayesian methods of modeling and uncertainty quantification have become popular in modern machine and deep learning. When providing a prior distribution over the parameter space, it is straightforward to…

We consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimate the diffusion coefficient of a stochastic differential equation given discrete time observations over a fixed time interval. As a prior on the diffusion coefficient, we employ a…

We consider a binary unsupervised classification problem where each observation is associated with an unobserved label that we want to retrieve. More precisely, we assume that there are two groups of observation: normal and abnormal. The…

This paper considers the issue of modeling fractional data observed in the interval [0,1), (0,1] or [0,1]. Mixed continuous-discrete distributions are proposed. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model…

This paper focuses on utilizing two different Bayesian methods to deal with a variety of toy problems which occur in data analysis. In particular we implement the Variational Bayesian and Nested Sampling methods to tackle the problems of…

We describe and analyze a broad class of mixture models for real-valued multivariate data in which the probability density of observations within each component of the model is represented as an arbitrary combination of basis functions.…

Approximate Bayesian Computation is a family of likelihood-free inference techniques that are well-suited to models defined in terms of a stochastic generating mechanism. In a nutshell, Approximate Bayesian Computation proceeds by computing…

We study the posterior distribution of the Bayesian multiple change-point regression problem when the number and the locations of the change-points are unknown. While it is relatively easy to apply the general theory to obtain the…

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

Bayesian predictive synthesis is useful in synthesizing multiple predictive distributions coherently. However, the proof for the fundamental equation of the synthesized predictive density has been missing. In this technical report, we…

Bayesian clustering methods have the widely touted advantage of providing a probabilistic characterization of uncertainty in clustering through the posterior distribution. An amazing variety of priors and likelihoods have been proposed for…

We consider the problem of learning a discrete distribution in the presence of an $\epsilon$ fraction of malicious data sources. Specifically, we consider the setting where there is some underlying distribution, $p$, and each data source…

Many applications, including natural language processing, sensor networks, collaborative filtering, and federated learning, call for estimating discrete distributions from data collected in batches, some of which may be untrustworthy,…

A bivariate distribution with continuous margins can be uniquely decomposed via a copula and its marginal distributions. We consider the problem of estimating the copula function and adopt a Bayesian approach. On the space of copula…

Reliable uncertainty quantification remains a central challenge in predictive modeling. While Bayesian methods are theoretically appealing, their predictive intervals can exhibit poor frequentist calibration, particularly with small sample…