相关论文: Where do statistical models come from? Revisiting …

We review the most important statistical ideas of the past half century, which we categorize as: counterfactual causal inference, bootstrapping and simulation-based inference, overparameterized models and regularization, Bayesian multilevel…

Beginning in the 1970s, statistician-cum-logician Per Martin-L\"of wrote a series of papers developing what became Martin-L\"of type theory, realizing a system where the distinction between mathematics and programming disappears. Inspired…

Traditional statistical estimation, or statistical inference in general, is static, in the sense that the estimate of the quantity of interest does not change the future evolution of the quantity. In some sequential estimation problems…

Analytic and computational methods developed within statistical physics have found applications in numerous disciplines. In this letter, we use such methods to solve a long-standing problem in statistical genetics. The problem, posed by…

In modern settings of data analysis, we may be running our algorithms on datasets that are sensitive in nature. However, classical machine learning and statistical algorithms were not designed with these risks in mind, and it has been…

Distribution inference, sometimes called property inference, infers statistical properties about a training set from access to a model trained on that data. Distribution inference attacks can pose serious risks when models are trained on…

This research proposes a new (old) metric for evaluating goodness of fit in topic models, the coefficient of determination, or $R^2$. Within the context of topic modeling, $R^2$ has the same interpretation that it does when used in a…

Expectiles were introduced by Newey and Powell (1987) in the context of linear regression models. Recently, Bellini et al. (2014) revealed that expectiles can also be seen as reasonable law-invariant risk measures. In this article, we show…

Statistical inference, a central tool of science, revolves around the study and the usage of statistical estimators: functions that map finite samples to predictions about unknown distribution parameters. In the frequentist framework,…

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

A case is made that researchers are interested in studying processes. Often the inferences they are interested in making are about the process and its associated population. On other occasions, a researcher may be interested in making an…

Dynamic factor models have been developed out of the need of analyzing and forecasting time series in increasingly high dimensions. While mathematical statisticians faced with inference problems in high-dimensional observation spaces were…

Probabilistic programming has emerged as a powerful paradigm in statistics, applied science, and machine learning: by decoupling modelling from inference, it promises to allow modellers to directly reason about the processes generating…

Large-scale datasets are increasingly being used to inform decision making. While this effort aims to ground policy in real-world evidence, challenges have arisen as selection bias and other forms of distribution shifts often plague…

In the era of big data, analysts usually explore various statistical models or machine learning methods for observed data in order to facilitate scientific discoveries or gain predictive power. Whatever data and fitting procedures are…

With the recent success of generative models in image and text, the question of their evaluation has recently gained a lot of attention. While most methods from the state of the art rely on scalar metrics, the introduction of Precision and…

Data assimilation schemes are confronted with the presence of model errors arising from the imperfect description of atmospheric dynamics. These errors are usually modeled on the basis of simple assumptions such as bias, white noise, first…

Estimation frameworks for statistical inference are preferred to hypothesis testing when quantifying uncertainty and precise estimation are more valuable than binary decisions about statistical significance. Study design for…

Causality is a subject of philosophical debate and a central scientific issue with a long history. In the statistical domain, the study of cause and effect based on the notion of `fairness' in comparisons dates back several hundred years,…