相关论文: Statistical inference for time-varying ARCH proces…

This article proposes an online bootstrap scheme for nonparametric level estimation in nonstationary time series. Our approach applies to a broad class of level estimators expressible as weighted sample averages over time windows, including…

SVR-GARCH model tends to "backward eavesdrop" when forecasting the financial time series volatility in which case it tends to simply produce the prediction by deviating the previous volatility. Though the SVR-GARCH model has achieved good…

We propose a new class of univariate nonstationary time series models, using the framework of modulated time series, which is appropriate for the analysis of rapidly-evolving time series as well as time series observations with missing…

We study the problem of stationarity and ergodicity for autoregressive multinomial logistic time series models which possibly include a latent process and are defined by a GARCH-type recursive equation. We improve considerably upon the…

We consider a process $ X= (X_t)_{t\in \Z}$ belonging to a large class of causal models including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$),... models. We assume that the model depends on a parameter $\theta_0 \in \R^d$ and consider the…

Forecasting the evolution of complex systems is one of the grand challenges of modern data science. The fundamental difficulty lies in understanding the structure of the observed stochastic process. In this paper, we show that every…

Linear ARCH (LARCH) processes were introduced by Robinson [J. Econometrics 47 (1991) 67--84] to model long-range dependence in volatility and leverage. Basic theoretical properties of LARCH processes have been investigated in the recent…

We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…

This paper introduces a unified factor overnight GARCH-It\^o model for large volatility matrix estimation and prediction. To account for whole-day market dynamics, the proposed model has two different instantaneous factor volatility…

We investigate the behavior of Fourier transforms for a wide class of nonstationary nonlinear processes. Asymptotic central and noncentral limit theorems are established for a class of nondegenerate and degenerate weighted $V$-statistics…

We consider the strongly consistent question for model selection in a large class of causal time series models, including AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH and many classical others processes. We propose a penalized…

A general class of time-varying regression models is considered in this paper. We estimate the regression coefficients by using local linear M-estimation. For these estimators, weak Bahadur representations are obtained and are used to…

The article contains an overview over locally stationary processes. At the beginning time varying autoregressive processes are discussed in detail - both as as a deep example and an important class of locally stationary processes. In the…

Let $a$ be a finite signed measure on $[-r, 0]$ with $r \in (0, \infty)$. Consider a stochastic process $(X^{(\vartheta)}(t))_{t\in[-r,\infty)}$ given by a linear stochastic delay differential equation \[ \mathrm{d} X^{(\vartheta)}(t) =…

We present a general theory to quantify the uncertainty from imposing structural assumptions on the second-order structure of nonstationary Hilbert space-valued processes, which can be measured via functionals of time-dependent spectral…

The global sensitivity analysis of time-dependent processes requires history-aware approaches. We develop for that purpose a variance-based method that leverages the correlation structure of the problems under study and employs surrogate…

Statistical inference for time series such as curve estimation for time-varying models or testing for existence of change-point have garnered significant attention. However, these works are generally restricted to the assumption of…

In this paper we consider multivariate Hawkes processes with baseline hazard and kernel functions that depend on time. This defines a class of locally stationary processes. We discuss estimation of the time-dependent baseline hazard and…

In this manuscript, we analytically and numerically study statistical properties of an heteroskedastic process based on the celebrated ARCH generator of random variables whose variance is defined by a memory of $q_{m}$-exponencial, form…

In this paper, we study a general class of causal processes with exogenous covariates, including many classical processes such as the ARMA-GARCH, APARCH, ARMAX, GARCH-X and APARCH-X processes. Under some Lipschitz-type conditions, the…