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We present non-asymptotic two-sided bounds to the log-marginal likelihood in Bayesian inference. The classical Laplace approximation is recovered as the leading term. Our derivation permits model misspecification and allows the parameter…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-06-23 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

We consider the Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems when the underlying operator depends on an unknown parameter. Allowing for finite dimensional as well as infinite dimensional parameters, the theory covers several models with…

统计理论 · 数学 2018-09-05 Mathias Trabs

We derive conditions for posterior consistency when the responses are independent but not identically distributed ($i.n.i.d$) and the model is "misspecified" to be a family of densities parametrized by a possibly infinite dimensional…

统计理论 · 数学 2014-08-27 Karthik Sriram , R. V. Ramamoorthi

Prior information often takes the form of parameter constraints. Bayesian methods include such information through prior distributions having constrained support. By using posterior sampling algorithms, one can quantify uncertainty without…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-09-25 Leo L Duan , Alexander L Young , Akihiko Nishimura , David B Dunson

In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the…

高能物理 - 唯象学 · 物理学 2007-05-23 J. Charles , A. Hocker , H. Lacker , F. R. Le Diberder , S. T'Jampens

Many modern experiments, such as microarray gene expression and genome-wide association studies, present the problem of estimating a large number of parallel effects. Bayesian inference is a popular approach for analyzing such data by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-10-26 J G Liao , Arthur Berg , Timothy L McMurry

In this article, we propose a novel Bayesian multiple testing formulation for model and variable selection in inverse setups, judiciously embedding the idea of inverse reference distributions proposed by Bhattacharya (2013) in a mixture…

统计理论 · 数学 2020-07-16 Debashis Chatterjee , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Bayesian sequence prediction is a simple technique for predicting future symbols sampled from an unknown measure on infinite sequences over a countable alphabet. While strong bounds on the expected cumulative error are known, there are only…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2013-07-02 Tor Lattimore , Marcus Hutter , Peter Sunehag

In this work we connect two notions: That of the nonparametric mode of a probability measure, defined by asymptotic small ball probabilities, and that of the Onsager-Machlup functional, a generalized density also defined via asymptotic…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-04-09 Remo Kretschmann

Constraints are a natural choice for prior information in Bayesian inference. In various applications, the parameters of interest lie on the boundary of the constraint set. In this paper, we use a method that implicitly defines a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-09-27 Jasper Marijn Everink , Yiqiu Dong , Martin Skovgaard Andersen

In a Bayesian inverse problem setting, the solution consists of a posterior measure obtained by combining prior belief, information about the forward operator, and noisy observational data. This measure is most often given in terms of a…

概率论 · 数学 2017-04-12 Philipp Wacker

Bayesian synthetic likelihood is a widely used approach for conducting Bayesian analysis in complex models where evaluation of the likelihood is infeasible but simulation from the assumed model is tractable. We analyze the behaviour of the…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-04-17 David T. Frazier , Christopher Drovandi , David J. Nott

Nonparametric Bayesian models are used routinely as flexible and powerful models of complex data. Many times, a statistician may have additional informative beliefs about data distribution of interest, e.g., its mean or subset components,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-11-08 Bingjing Tang , Vinayak Rao

We study Bayesian inference of an unknown matching $\pi^*$ between two correlated random point sets $\{X_i\}_{i=1}^n$ and $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^n$ in $[0,1]^d$, under a critical scaling $\|X_i-Y_{\pi^*(i)}\|_2 \asymp n^{-1/d}$, in both an exact…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-03-10 Zhou Fan , Timothy L. H. Wee , Kaylee Y. Yang

Prior distributions for high-dimensional linear regression require specifying a joint distribution for the unobserved regression coefficients, which is inherently difficult. We instead propose a new class of shrinkage priors for linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-09 Yan Dora Zhang , Brian P. Naughton , Howard D. Bondell , Brian J. Reich

In statistical applications, it is common to encounter parameters supported on a varying or unknown dimensional space. Examples include the fused lasso regression, the matrix recovery under an unknown low rank, etc. Despite the ease of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-04 Maoran Xu , Hua Zhou , Yujie Hu , Leo L. Duan

The application of Bayesian inference for the purpose of model selection is very popular nowadays. In this framework, models are compared through their marginal likelihoods, or their quotients, called Bayes factors. However, marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-27 F. Llorente , L. Martino , E. Curbelo , J. Lopez-Santiago , D. Delgado

Bayesian methods are a popular choice for statistical inference in small-data regimes due to the regularization effect induced by the prior. In the context of density estimation, the standard nonparametric Bayesian approach is to target the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-02-21 Sahra Ghalebikesabi , Chris Holmes , Edwin Fong , Brieuc Lehmann

In this article, we study the binary classification problem with supervised data, in the case where the covariate-to-probability-of-success map is possibly spatially inhomogeneous. We devise nonparametric Bayesian procedures with…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-10 Matteo Giordano

In this paper, we study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are piecewise constant functions on binary partitions. We analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution under a…

统计理论 · 数学 2015-08-21 Linxi Liu , Wing Hung Wong