相关论文: Expectation, Conditional Expectation and Martingal…
It is often of interest to condition on a singular event given by a random variable, e.g. $\{Y=y\}$ for a continuous random variable $Y$. Conditional measures with respect to this event are usually derived as a special case of the…
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used…
This paper introduces a martingale that characterizes two properties of evolving forecast distributions. Ideal forecasts of a future event behave as martingales, sequen- tially updating the forecast to leverage the available information as…
We first develop a theory of conditional expectations for random variables with values in a complete metric space $M$ equipped with a contractive barycentric map $\beta$, and then give convergence theorems for martingales of…
Max-stable random fields play a central role in modeling extreme value phenomena. We obtain an explicit formula for the conditional probability in general max-linear models, which include a large class of max-stable random fields. As a…
We discuss conditional expectations that can be used as generalizations of the partial trace for quantum systems with an infinite-dimensional Hilbert space of states.
We consider $\alpha$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of…
In a fully general setting, we study the relation between martingale spaces under two locally absolutely continuous probabilities and prove that the martingale representation property (MRP) is always stable under locally absolutely…
We establish the asymptotic normality of the regression estimator in a fixed-design setting when the errors are given by a field of dependent random variables. The result applies to martingale-difference or strongly mixing random fields. On…
Consider additive functionals of a Markov chain $W_k$, with stationary (marginal) distribution and transition function denoted by $\pi$ and $Q$, say $S_n=g(W_1)+...+g(W_n)$, where $g$ is square integrable and has mean 0 with respect to…
We introduce so-called super/sub-martingale projections as a family of endomorphisms defined on unions of Polish spaces. Such projections allow us to identify martingales as collections of transformations that relate path-valued random…
We consider the problem of defining conditional objects (a|b), which would allow one to regard the conditional probability Pr(a|b) as a probability of a well-defined event rather than as a shorthand for Pr(ab)/Pr(b). The next issue is to…
Invariance times are stopping times $\tau$ such that local martingales with respect to some reduced filtration and an equivalently changed probability measure, stopped before $\tau$ , are local martingales with respect to the original model…
Recently established, directed dependence measures for pairs $(X,Y)$ of random variables build upon the natural idea of comparing the conditional distributions of $Y$ given $X=x$ with the marginal distribution of $Y$. They assign pairs…
The central limit theorem of martingales is the fundamental tool for studying the convergence of stochastic processes. The central limit theorem and functional central limit theorem are obtained for martingale like random variables under…
A translation-invariant gapped local Hamiltonian is in the trivial phase if it can be connected to a completely decoupled Hamiltonian with a smooth path of translation-invariant gapped local Hamiltonians. For the ground state of such a…
Conditional Monte Carlo refers to sampling from the conditional distribution of a random vector X given the value T(X) = t for a function T(X). Classical conditional Monte Carlo methods were designed for estimating conditional expectations…
This work develops, from a functional analytic perspective, the construction of random variables in Lebesgue spaces L^p. It extends classical notions of measurability, integrability, and expectation to L^p valued functions, using Pettis's…
We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…
We show that one can perform causal inference in a natural way for continuous-time scenarios using tools from stochastic analysis. This provides new alternatives to the positivity condition for inverse probability weighting. The probability…