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Markov chain Monte Carlo methods have become standard tools in statistics to sample from complex probability measures. Many available techniques rely on discrete-time reversible Markov chains whose transition kernels build up over the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-02-21 Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , Sebastian J. Vollmer , Arnaud Doucet

We introduce an approach for efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for challenging high-dimensional distributions in sparse Bayesian learning (SBL). The core innovation involves using hierarchical prior-normalizing transport…

数值分析 · 数学 2025-05-30 Jan Glaubitz , Youssef Marzouk

Simulating sampling algorithms with people has proven a useful method for efficiently probing and understanding their mental representations. We propose that the same methods can be used to study the representations of Large Language Models…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-01-31 Jian-Qiao Zhu , Haijiang Yan , Thomas L. Griffiths

We apply a Bayesian data analysis scheme known as the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to the tomographic reconstruction of quantum states. This method yields a vector, known as the Markov chain, which contains the full statistical…

We introduce Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms based on numerical approximations of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes obtained with the framework of splitting schemes. We present unadjusted as well as adjusted algorithms,…

概率论 · 数学 2025-11-04 Andrea Bertazzi , Paul Dobson , Pierre Monmarché

We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-03-31 Dan Crisan , Joaquin Miguez

We consider posterior sampling in the very common Bayesian hierarchical model in which observed data depends on high-dimensional latent variables that, in turn, depend on relatively few hyperparameters. When the full conditional over the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-10-24 Richard A. Norton , J. Andres Christen , Colin Fox

We investigate the properties of a sequential Monte Carlo method where the particle weight that appears in the algorithm is estimated by a positive, unbiased estimator. We present broadly-applicable convergence results, including a central…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-26 Paul B. Rohrbach , Robert L. Jack

Monte-Carlo techniques are standard numerical tools for exploring non-Gaussian and multivariate likelihoods. Many variants of the original Metropolis-Hastings algorithm have been proposed to increase the sampling efficiency. Motivated by…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2024-10-31 Maximilian Philipp Herzog , Heinrich von Campe , Rebecca Maria Kuntz , Lennart Röver , Björn Malte Schäfer

Monte Carlo (MC) integration is the de facto method for approximating the predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). But, even with many MC samples, Gaussian-based BNNs could still yield bad predictive performance due to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-10-18 Agustinus Kristiadi , Runa Eschenhagen , Philipp Hennig

Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-27 Rohitash Chandra , Joshua Simmons

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are widely used in machine learning. One of the major problems with MCMC is the question of how to design chains that mix fast over the whole state space; in particular, how to select the parameters…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-07-16 Kiarash Shaloudegi , András György

We introduce an ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to sampling from a probability density with known likelihood. This method upgrades an underlying Markov chain by allowing an ensemble of such chains to interact via a process in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2021-06-08 Michael Lindsey , Jonathan Weare , Anna Zhang

We consider conditional tests for non-negative discrete exponential families. We develop two Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms which allow us to sample from the conditional space and to perform approximated tests. The first…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-07-27 Roberto Fontana , Francesca Romana Crucinio

Modern macroeconometrics often relies on time series models for which it is time-consuming to evaluate the likelihood function. We demonstrate how Bayesian computations for such models can be drastically accelerated by reweighting and…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-09-10 Marko Mlikota , Frank Schorfheide

Sequential optimization methods are often confronted with the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional spaces. Current approaches under the Gaussian process framework are still burdened by the computational complexity of tracking…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-01-08 Zeji Yi , Yunyue Wei , Chu Xin Cheng , Kaibo He , Yanan Sui

We consider Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for Bayesian high-dimensional regression with continuous shrinkage priors. A common challenge with these algorithms is the choice of the number of iterations to perform. This is…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-07-13 Niloy Biswas , Anirban Bhattacharya , Pierre E. Jacob , James E. Johndrow

Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-09-29 Paul Fearnhead , Joris Bierkens , Murray Pollock , Gareth O Roberts

We study the problem of approximate sampling from non-log-concave distributions, e.g., Gaussian mixtures, which is often challenging even in low dimensions due to their multimodality. We focus on performing this task via Markov chain Monte…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-30 Tim Tsz-Kit Lau , Han Liu , Thomas Pock

It has become increasingly easy nowadays to collect approximate posterior samples via fast algorithms such as variational Bayes, but concerns exist about the estimation accuracy. It is tempting to build solutions that exploit approximate…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-17 Leo L. Duan , Anirban Bhattacharya