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The predictive Bayesian view involves eliciting a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions in lieu of specifying a likelihood function and prior distribution. Recent methods have leveraged predictive distributions which are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-25 Yiu Yin Yung , Stephen M. S. Lee , Edwin Fong

Manifold-valued parameters routinely arise in modern statistical applications such as in medical imaging, robotics, and computer vision, to name a few. While traditional Bayesian approaches are applicable to such settings by considering an…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-27 Rong Tang , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Yun Yang

Bayesian model selection provides a powerful framework for objectively comparing models directly from observed data, without reference to ground truth data. However, Bayesian model selection requires the computation of the marginal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-01-17 Xiaohao Cai , Jason D. McEwen , Marcelo Pereyra

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

We propose a new statistical approach to obtain differential gene expression of non-detects in quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) experiments through Bayesian hierarchical modeling. We propose to treat non-detects as non-random missing data,…

应用统计 · 统计学 2019-10-31 Valeriia Sherina , Matthew N. McCall , Tanzy M. T. Love

We propose a general framework using spike-and-slab prior distributions to aid with the development of high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Our framework allows inference with a general quasi-likelihood function. We show that highly…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-08-21 Yves Atchade , Anwesha Bhattacharyya

This paper introduces methodology for performing Bayesian inference sequentially on a sequence of posteriors on spaces of different dimensions. We show how this may be achieved through the use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) samplers (Del…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-06-02 Richard G Everitt , Richard Culliford , Felipe Medina-Aguayo , Daniel J Wilson

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly…

机器学习 · 统计学 2015-10-27 Xiangyu Wang , Fangjian Guo , Katherine A. Heller , David B. Dunson

We introduce a nonparametric prior on the conditional distribution of a (univariate or multivariate) response given a set of predictors. The prior is constructed in the form of a two-stage generative procedure, which in the first stage…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-03-16 Li Ma

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

机器学习 · 统计学 2017-05-17 Hildo Bijl , Thomas B. Schön , Jan-Willem van Wingerden , Michel Verhaegen

In Bayesian inference, predictive distributions are typically in the form of samples generated via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or related algorithms. In this paper, we conduct a systematic analysis of how to make and evaluate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-06-25 Fabian Krüger , Sebastian Lerch , Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir , Tilmann Gneiting

An imprecise Bayesian nonparametric approach to system reliability with multiple types of components is developed. This allows modelling partial or imperfect prior knowledge on component failure distributions in a flexible way through…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-09-19 Gero Walter , Louis J. M. Aslett , Frank P. A. Coolen

In this article, we study the binary classification problem with supervised data, in the case where the covariate-to-probability-of-success map is possibly spatially inhomogeneous. We devise nonparametric Bayesian procedures with…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-09-10 Matteo Giordano

Variational inference has recently emerged as a popular alternative to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in large-scale Bayesian inference. The core idea is to trade statistical accuracy for computational efficiency. In this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-08-08 Kush Bhatia , Nikki Lijing Kuang , Yi-An Ma , Yixin Wang

Decision trees are commonly used predictive models due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed at quantifying the uncertainty of decision tree predictions by employing a Bayesian inference approach. This is…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-03-28 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian Wills , Sarah J. Johnson

Decision tree learning is a popular approach for classification and regression in machine learning and statistics, and Bayesian formulations---which introduce a prior distribution over decision trees, and formulate learning as posterior…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-08-26 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Daniel M. Roy , Yee Whye Teh

Bayesian models are a powerful tool for studying complex data, allowing the analyst to encode rich hierarchical dependencies and leverage prior information. Most importantly, they facilitate a complete characterization of uncertainty…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Steven Winter , Trevor Campbell , Lizhen Lin , Sanvesh Srivastava , David B. Dunson

As an alternative to variable selection or shrinkage in high dimensional regression, we propose to randomly compress the predictors prior to analysis. This dramatically reduces storage and computational bottlenecks, performing well when the…

机器学习 · 统计学 2013-03-26 Rajarshi Guhaniyogi , David B. Dunson

The use of non-differentiable priors in Bayesian statistics has become increasingly popular, in particular in Bayesian imaging analysis. Current state of the art methods are approximate in the sense that they replace the posterior with a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-17 Jacob Vorstrup Goldman , Torben Sell , Sumeetpal Sidhu Singh

We propose a fully Bayesian approach for causal inference with multivariate categorical data based on staged tree models, a class of probabilistic graphical models capable of representing asymmetric and context-specific dependencies. To…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-06 Andrea Cremaschi , Manuele Leonelli , Gherardo Varando