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We propose a modification of the improved cross entropy (iCE) method to enhance its performance for network reliability assessment. The iCE method performs a transition from the nominal density to the optimal importance sampling (IS)…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-11-18 Jianpeng Chan , Iason Papaioannou , Daniel Straub

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo technique for the approximation of intractable distributions and integrals with respect to them. The origin of IS dates from the early 1950s. In the last decades, the rise of the Bayesian paradigm…

统计计算 · 统计学 2024-06-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino

Importance Sampling methods are broadly used to approximate posterior distributions or some of their moments. In its standard approach, samples are drawn from a single proposal distribution and weighted properly. However, since the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-11-05 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Many applications in computational sciences and statistical inference require the computation of expectations with respect to complex high-dimensional distributions with unknown normalization constants, as well as the estimation of these…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-10-26 Yu Cao , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) is a popular algorithm used to estimates the intractable marginal likelihood of deep generative models. Although AIS is guaranteed to provide unbiased estimate for any set of hyperparameters, the common…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-10-11 Shirin Goshtasbpour , Fernando Perez-Cruz

The efficient importance sampling (EIS) method is a general principle for the numerical evaluation of high-dimensional integrals that uses the sequential structure of target integrands to build variance minimising importance samplers.…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-09-27 Marcel Scharth , Robert Kohn

We review two recently developed efficient methods for calculating rate constants of processes dominated by rare events in high-dimensional complex systems. The first is transition interface sampling (TIS), based on the measurement of…

统计力学 · 物理学 2009-11-10 Titus S. van Erp , Peter G. Bolhuis

The inefficiency of using an unbiased estimator in a Monte Carlo procedure can be quantified using an inefficiency constant, equal to the product of the variance of the estimator and its mean computational cost. We develop methods for…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-01-08 Tomasz Badowski

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) is the gold standard for estimating partition functions or marginal likelihoods, corresponding to importance sampling over a path of distributions between a tractable base and an unnormalized target. While…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-04-29 Rob Brekelmans , Vaden Masrani , Thang Bui , Frank Wood , Aram Galstyan , Greg Ver Steeg , Frank Nielsen

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) is an increasingly used methodology where several proposal densities are used to approximate integrals, generally involving target probability density functions. The use of several proposals allows for a…

统计理论 · 数学 2022-07-12 Rahul Mukerjee , Víctor Elvira

We explore efficient estimation of statistical quantities, particularly rare event probabilities, for stochastic reaction networks. Consequently, we propose an importance sampling (IS) approach to improve the Monte Carlo (MC) estimator…

数值分析 · 数学 2024-03-12 Chiheb Ben Hammouda , Nadhir Ben Rached , Raúl Tempone , Sophia Wiechert

Given an unnormalized probability density $\pi\propto\mathrm{e}^{-V}$, estimating its normalizing constant $Z=\int_{\mathbb{R}^d}\mathrm{e}^{-V(x)}\mathrm{d}x$ or free energy $F=-\log Z$ is a crucial problem in Bayesian statistics,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-20 Wei Guo , Molei Tao , Yongxin Chen

Importance sampling (IS) is a Monte Carlo methodology that allows for approximation of a target distribution using weighted samples generated from another proposal distribution. Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) implements an iterative…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-06-04 Yousef El-Laham , Victor Elvira , Monica F. Bugallo

Annealed importance sampling (AIS) and related algorithms are highly effective tools for marginal likelihood estimation, but are not fully differentiable due to the use of Metropolis-Hastings correction steps. Differentiability is a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-10-28 Guodong Zhang , Kyle Hsu , Jianing Li , Chelsea Finn , Roger Grosse

We propose an algorithm, termed the Non-Equilibrium Transport Sampler (NETS), to sample from unnormalized probability distributions. NETS can be viewed as a variant of annealed importance sampling (AIS) based on Jarzynski's equality, in…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-14 Michael S. Albergo , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

The self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS) estimator is a Monte Carlo estimator widely used to approximate expectations in statistical signal processing and machine learning. The efficiency of SNIS depends on the choice of proposal, but…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-05-06 Nicola Branchini , Víctor Elvira

Reliability updating refers to a problem that integrates Bayesian updating technique with structural reliability analysis and cannot be directly solved by structural reliability methods (SRMs) when it involves equality information. The…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-04-19 Xiong Xiao , Zeyu Wang , Quanwang Li

Nonequilibrium sampling is potentially much more versatile than its equilibrium counterpart, but it comes with challenges because the invariant distribution is not typically known when the dynamics breaks detailed balance. Here, we derive a…

统计力学 · 物理学 2021-10-08 Grant M. Rotskoff , Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Multiple importance sampling (MIS) methods use a set of proposal distributions from which samples are drawn. Each sample is then assigned an importance weight that can be obtained according to different strategies. This work is motivated by…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-05-21 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Importance sampling (IS) is a powerful Monte Carlo (MC) methodology for approximating integrals, for instance in the context of Bayesian inference. In IS, the samples are simulated from the so-called proposal distribution, and the choice of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-09-29 Ali Mousavi , Reza Monsefi , Víctor Elvira