相关论文: Towards Reconciliation between Bayesian and Freque…

The general use of subjective probabilities to model belief has been justified using many axiomatic schemes. For example, ?consistent betting behavior' arguments are well-known. To those not already convinced of the unique fitness and…

This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to Bayesian inference, combining historical context, theoretical foundations, and core analytical examples. Beginning with Bayes' theorem and the philosophical distinctions between Bayesian and…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

Conformal prediction has emerged as a cutting-edge methodology in statistics and machine learning, providing prediction intervals with finite-sample frequentist coverage guarantees. Yet, its interplay with Bayesian statistics, often…

Comprehensible explanations of probabilistic reasoning are a prerequisite for wider acceptance of Bayesian methods in expert systems and decision support systems. A study of human reasoning under uncertainty suggests two different…

Bayesian and frequentist criteria fundamentally differ, but often posterior and sampling distributions agree asymptotically (e.g., Gaussian with same covariance). For the corresponding single-draw experiment, we characterize the frequentist…

We develop a framework for the operationalization of models and parameters by combining de Finetti's representation theorem with a conditional form of Sanov's theorem. This synthesis, the tilted de Finetti theorem, shows that conditioning…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

The main object of Bayesian statistical inference is the determination of posterior distributions. Sometimes these laws are given for quantities devoid of empirical value. This serious drawback vanishes when one confines oneself to…

A number of well-known theorems, such as Cox's theorem and de Finetti's theorem. prove that any model of reasoning with uncertain information that satisfies specified conditions of "rationality" must satisfy the axioms of probability…

The replication crisis has prompted many to call for statistical reform within the psychological sciences. Here we examine issues within Frequentist statistics that may have led to the replication crisis, and we examine the…

The conventional postulate for the probabilistic interpretation of quantum mechanics is asymmetric in preparation and measurement, making retrodiction reliant on inference by use of Bayes' theorem. Here, a more fundamental symmetric…

By representing the range of fair betting odds according to a pair of confidence set estimators, dual probability measures on parameter space called frequentist posteriors secure the coherence of subjective inference without any prior…

Over the past two decades, several consistent procedures have been designed to infer causal conclusions from observational data. We prove that if the true causal network might be an arbitrary, linear Gaussian network or a discrete Bayes…

The two statistical methods, namely the frequentist and the Bayesian methods, are both commonly used for probabilistic inference in many scientific situations. However, it is not straightforward to interpret the result of one approach in…

The features of a logically sound approach to a theory of statistical reasoning are discussed. A particular approach that satisfies these criteria is reviewed. This is seen to involve selection of a model, model checking, elicitation of a…

In randomized experiments, treatment and control groups should be roughly the same--balanced--in their distributions of pretreatment variables. But how nearly so? Can descriptive comparisons meaningfully be paired with significance tests?…

Probability-like parameters appearing in some statistical models, and their prior distributions, are reinterpreted through the notion of `circumstance', a term which stands for any piece of knowledge that is useful in assigning a…

There are two main opposing schools of statistical reasoning, Frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Until recent days, the frequentist or classical approach has dominated the scientific research, but Bayesianism has reappeared with a strong…

Bayesian inference is attractive for its coherence and good frequentist properties. However, it is a common experience that eliciting a honest prior may be difficult and, in practice, people often take an {\em empirical Bayes} approach,…