相关论文: Likelihood inference for incompletely observed sto…

Although randomized experiments are widely regarded as the gold standard for estimating causal effects, missing data of the pretreatment covariates makes it challenging to estimate the subgroup causal effects. When the missing data…

This paper introduces the class of ambiguity sparse processes, containing subsets of popular nonstationary time series such as locally stationary, cyclostationary and uniformly modulated processes. The class also contains aggregations of…

Monte Carlo methods to evaluate and maximize the likelihood function enable the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests, facilitating scientific investigation using models for which the likelihood function is intractable.…

Likelihood-free methods perform parameter inference in stochastic simulator models where evaluating the likelihood is intractable but sampling synthetic data is possible. One class of methods for this likelihood-free problem uses a…

We study a class of missingness mechanisms, called sequentially additive nonignorable, for modeling multivariate data with item nonresponse. These mechanisms explicitly allow the probability of nonresponse for each variable to depend on the…

Using a hierarchical construction, we develop methods for a wide and flexible class of models by taking a fully parametric approach to generalized linear mixed models with complex covariance dependence. The Laplace approximation is used to…

Likelihood profiling is an efficient and powerful frequentist approach for parameter estimation, uncertainty quantification and practical identifiablity analysis. Unfortunately, these methods cannot be easily applied for stochastic models…

Stochastic kinetic models are often used to describe complex biological processes. Typically these models are analytically intractable and have unknown parameters which need to be estimated from observed data. Ideally we would have…

We consider the inference problem for parameters in stochastic differential equation models from discrete time observations (e.g. experimental or simulation data). Specifically, we study the case where one does not have access to…

Probabilistic and set-based methods are two approaches for model invalidation, parameter and state estimation. Both classes of methods use different types of data, i.e. deterministic or probabilistic data, which allow different statements…

Causal inference with observational data can be performed under an assumption of no unobserved confounders (unconfoundedness assumption). There is, however, seldom clear subject-matter or empirical evidence for such an assumption. We…

Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic…

The stratified proportional intensity model generalizes Cox's proportional intensity model by allowing different groups of the population under study to have distinct baseline intensity functions. In this article, we consider the problem of…

Motivated by the abundance of uncertain event data from multiple sources including physical devices and sensors, this paper presents the task of relating a stochastic process observation to a process model that can be rendered from a…

An assumed density approximate likelihood is derived for a class of partially observed stochastic compartmental models which permit observational over-dispersion. This is achieved by treating time-varying reporting probabilities as latent…

It is well known that complete prior ignorance is not compatible with learning, at least in a coherent theory of (epistemic) uncertainty. What is less widely known, is that there is a state similar to full ignorance, that Walley calls…

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Model uncertainty quantification is an essential component of effective data assimilation. Model errors associated with sub-grid scale processes are often represented through stochastic parameterizations of the unresolved process. Many…

We study a marginal empirical likelihood approach in scenarios when the number of variables grows exponentially with the sample size. The marginal empirical likelihood ratios as functions of the parameters of interest are systematically…

Stochastic inverse problems considered in this article consist of estimating the probability distributions of intrinsically random inputs of computer models. These estimations are based on observable outputs affected by model noise, and…