相关论文: Likelihood inference for incompletely observed sto…

We consider the problem of estimating states and parameters in a model based on a system of coupled stochastic differential equations, based on noisy discrete-time data. Special attention is given to nonlinear dynamics and state-dependent…

We illustrate a class of conditional models for the analysis of longitudinal data suffering attrition in random effects models framework, where the subject-specific random effects are assumed to be discrete and to follow a time-dependent…

Events in the world may be caused by other, unobserved events. We consider sequences of events in continuous time. Given a probability model of complete sequences, we propose particle smoothing---a form of sequential importance…

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

We present a randomization-based inferential framework for experiments characterized by a strongly ignorable assignment mechanism where units have independent probabilities of receiving treatment. Previous works on randomization tests often…

We consider an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations when some components of the random observations are subject to missingness. As the nature of the estimating equations is wide-ranging, we…

Stochastic processes offer a flexible mathematical formalism to model and reason about systems. Most analysis tools, however, start from the premises that models are fully specified, so that any parameters controlling the system's dynamics…

This paper is an early version. We propose to generalise the notion of "ignoring" a random process as well as the notions of informative and ignorable random processes in a very general setup and for different types of inference (Bayesian…

Statistical inference with nonresponse is quite challenging, especially when the response mechanism is nonignorable. The existing methods often require correct model specifications for both outcome and response models. However, due to…

Missing data often result in undesirable bias and loss of efficiency. These issues become substantial when the response mechanism is nonignorable, meaning that the response model depends on unobserved variables. To manage nonignorable…

This paper considers an empirical likelihood inference for parameters defined by general estimating equations, when data are missing at random. The efficiency of existing estimators depends critically on correctly specifying the conditional…

State-space models are dynamical systems defined by a latent and an observed process. In ecology, stochastic state-space models in discrete time are most often used to describe the imperfectly observed dynamics of population sizes or animal…

We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…

We introduce a nonparametric model for inferring time-evolving, unobserved probability distributions from discrete-time data consisting of unlabelled partitions. The latent process is a two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet diffusion, and…

There have been controversies among statisticians on (i) what to model and (ii) how to make inferences from models with unobservables. One such controversy concerns the difference between estimation methods for the marginal means not…

Various processes can be modelled as quasi-reaction systems of stochastic differential equations, such as cell differentiation and disease spreading. Since the underlying data of particle interactions, such as reactions between proteins or…

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

The analysis of a truncated sample can be hindered by censoring. Survival information may be lost to follow-up or the birthdate may be missing. The data can still be modeled as a truncated point process and it is close to a Poisson process,…

With nonignorable missing data, likelihood-based inference should be based on the joint distribution of the study variables and their missingness indicators. These joint models cannot be estimated from the data alone, thus requiring the…

Noncompliance and missing data often occur in randomized trials, which complicate the inference of causal effects. When both noncompliance and missing data are present, previous papers proposed moment and maximum likelihood estimators for…